SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SHANGHAI SIPG (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SHANGHAI SIPG face Sichuan Jiuniu.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SHANGHAI SIPG have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 6W 3D 1L at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sichuan Jiuniu's overall Super League record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Sichuan Jiuniu have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in SHANGHAI SIPG's favour (2.20 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2025, ended 2–1 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SHANGHAI SIPG and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Sichuan Jiuniu half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SHANGHAI SIPG 70% and Sichuan Jiuniu 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SHANGHAI SIPG 77% | Sichuan Jiuniu 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.247 / defence 0.991 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.778 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.203. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 39 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Draw 16% | Sichuan Jiuniu 11%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.37 | Draw 6.25 | Sichuan Jiuniu 9.09. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.52 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 80% | Sichuan Jiuniu 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 May 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Draw 16% | Sichuan Jiuniu 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 56% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.247 / def 0.991 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.778 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.60
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 73% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (4 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 4W | Draws 0 | Sichuan Jiuniu 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 1.25x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.78x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
73%
1.37
16%
6.39
11%
8.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.60
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.52
0.93
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.39
16%
Draw
8.95
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
7%
13.41
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
1%
120.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.60 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.93 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 45W 9D 6L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Sichuan Jiuniu's form line: 15W 11D 34L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, SHANGHAI SIPG are the form team by 1.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sichuan Jiuniu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.47 PPG from 30 outings (23W 5D 2L).
On the road, Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 5W 5D 20L from 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.80 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.07 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 45W 9D 6L in their last 60 games (2.40 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 15W 11D 34L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.47 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.67 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Sichuan Jiuniu been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sichuan Jiuniu in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-6 on 5 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Sichuan Jiuniu 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, Sichuan Jiuniu 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for SHANGHAI SIPG and 57% for Sichuan Jiuniu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sichuan Jiuniu in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's games and 47% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of SHANGHAI SIPG's matches and 57% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG and Sichuan Jiuniu finished level at 1-1 at Shanghai Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.60 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.93 xG, a combined 3.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.25 / defence 0.99 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 73% | Draw 16% | Sichuan Jiuniu 11%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 77%, Sichuan Jiuniu 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.