SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Dalian Sports Center in Super League, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 09:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SHANGHAI SIPG — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG at Dalian Sports Center this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Sports Center. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 0, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 42% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 44% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 2.28 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.266 / defence 0.658 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.302 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.312. SHANGHAI SIPG carry an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shijiazhuang Y. J. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing SHANGHAI SIPG's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — the away xG of 1.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence rating of 0.658 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 37 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 63% | Draw 20% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 5.88. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Dalian Sports Center • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 09:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 63% | Draw 20% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 2.28 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.266 / def 0.658 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.302 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 09:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Dalian Sports Center.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
SHANGHAI SIPG 2 - 0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Sports Center.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 63% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 0W | Draws 1 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
63%
1.59
20%
5.02
17%
5.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
3.40
1.12
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
1.59
63%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
5.81
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
10%
9.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
2%
56.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.12 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG come into this having played 45 games, going 26W 10D 9L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shijiazhuang Y. J. sit at 1.11 PPG from 45 outings (12W 14D 19L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Shijiazhuang Y. J. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SHANGHAI SIPG's home form reads 16W 3D 4L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.71 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.20 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 26W 10D 9L in their last 45 games (1.96 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 12W 14D 19L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.22 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Shijiazhuang Y. J. been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 6 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 5, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 22%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 74% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 74% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2-0 at Dalian Sports Center, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 2.28 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.12 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.27 / defence 0.66 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.30 / defence 1.22, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 63% | Draw 20% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 17%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 44%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.