SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Shanghai Shenhua travel to Jinzhou Stadium to take on SHANGHAI SIPG. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 29 June 2022, 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Jinzhou Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Jinzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SHANGHAI SIPG, 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jun 2022, ended 0–2 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 41% versus Shanghai Shenhua 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 50% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.00 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.812 / defence 0.862 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.176 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.123. Data: 20 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 20 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 37%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 10% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jun 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.00 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.812 / def 0.862 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.176 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shanghai Shenhua xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 08:30 on Wednesday 29 June 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 1 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 30% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 0W | Draws 0 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SHANGHAI SIPG's attack at 0.81x the league average against Shanghai Shenhua's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
30%
3.33
33%
3.05
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.13
1.14
Shanghai Shenhua xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
10%
10.41
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.5 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.14 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 13W 6D 3L from 22 games, a 2.05 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 5L across 22 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SHANGHAI SIPG on 2.05 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 9W 1D 1L from 11 games — 2.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — SHANGHAI SIPG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's scoring rate against Shanghai Shenhua's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 13W 6D 3L in their last 22 games (2.05 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 10W 7D 5L in their last 22 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.55 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.36 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Shanghai Shenhua have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-0 Shanghai Shenhua.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 73% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SHANGHAI SIPG 18%, Shanghai Shenhua 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 36% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Shanghai Shenhua in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Shanghai Shenhua?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 54% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 36% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua finished level at 1-1 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.00 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.14 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.81 / defence 0.86 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.18 / defence 0.89, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 30% | Draw 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 37%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 50%, Shanghai Shenhua 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 2.05 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.