SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as SHANGHAI SIPG take on Hebei Zhongji.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 7 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Hebei Zhongji to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 July 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.17 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. SHANGHAI SIPG have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 1D 0L this season (3 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
Hebei Zhongji — All Games: 3W 2D 1L from 6 Super League fixtures this season — 1.83 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 0.83 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hebei Zhongji have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hebei Zhongji have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (SHANGHAI SIPG) versus 1.83 (Hebei Zhongji). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
SHANGHAI SIPG trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Hebei Zhongji trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 50% versus Hebei Zhongji 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 50% | Hebei Zhongji 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.15 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.133 / defence 0.966 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.804 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 0.875 / away 1.211. Data: 6 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 6 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 36% | Draw 38% | Hebei Zhongji 26%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Hebei Zhongji 3.85. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SHANGHAI SIPG 33% | Hebei Zhongji 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jul 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 36% | Draw 38% | Hebei Zhongji 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.15 / Hebei Zhongji 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.133 / def 0.966 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.804 / def 1.161 | league avg home 0.875 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Hebei Zhongji xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 11:30 on Thursday 22 July 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 36% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 26% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 3W-3D-0L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.17 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 3W-2D-1L in 6 | 1.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.83 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.74
38%
2.64
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.09
0.94
Hebei Zhongji xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.02
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.94 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SHANGHAI SIPG's recent record stands at 3W 3D 0L from 6 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 1L across 6 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SHANGHAI SIPG on 2.00 PPG, Hebei Zhongji on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SHANGHAI SIPG have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 1.17 scored and 0.83 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's scoring rate against Hebei Zhongji's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hebei Zhongji in 67%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Early Season
Hebei Zhongji
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 3W 3D 0L in their last 6 games (2.00 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 3W 2D 1L in their last 6 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.33 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 2.00 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SHANGHAI SIPG have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Hebei Zhongji specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
0
Draws
1
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2022, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-1 Hebei Zhongji.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SHANGHAI SIPG 33% BTTS, Hebei Zhongji 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 33% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Hebei Zhongji in 67%; SHANGHAI SIPG have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 33% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 33% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Hebei Zhongji 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Hebei Zhongji 1-0 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.15 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hebei Zhongji landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.13 / defence 0.97 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 36% | Draw 38% | Hebei Zhongji 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual SHANGHAI SIPG win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 50%, Hebei Zhongji 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG, Hebei Zhongji 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.