SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Huadu Stadium plays host to SHANGHAI SIPG versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC in Super League, Championship Round - 8. Kick-off: Tuesday 4 January 2022 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
SHANGHAI SIPG's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 8W 1D 1L at Huadu Stadium — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Huadu Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Huadu Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for SHANGHAI SIPG, 2.30 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SHANGHAI SIPG 0W, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SHANGHAI SIPG 43% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SHANGHAI SIPG 52% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.56 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.176 / defence 0.943 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.128 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Data: 14 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 14 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 40% | Draw 28% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SHANGHAI SIPG if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: SHANGHAI SIPG 20% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Jan 2022, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 40% | Draw 28% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.56 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.176 / def 0.943 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.128 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 07:30 on Tuesday 4 January 2022 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
SHANGHAI SIPG 1 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 40% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (1 meetings): SHANGHAI SIPG 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (1.13x) against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.52
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.93
1.37
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
10%
9.76
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.37 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, SHANGHAI SIPG have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 12W 6D 3L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form line: 13W 5D 3L from 21 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for SHANGHAI SIPG against 2.10 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SHANGHAI SIPG have posted 2.50 PPG from 10 outings (8W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — SHANGHAI SIPG are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SHANGHAI SIPG are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 2.24 scored and 0.76 conceded. SHANGHAI SIPG's scoring rate against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 12W 6D 3L in their last 21 games (2.00 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 13W 5D 3L in their last 21 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SHANGHAI SIPG at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SHANGHAI SIPG at home: 2.50 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 1.70 PPG.
Have SHANGHAI SIPG or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SHANGHAI SIPG have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 July 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 40% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SHANGHAI SIPG) and 40% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG keep a clean sheet in 70% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SHANGHAI SIPG play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent matches and 40% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's recent games and 40% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SHANGHAI SIPG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
SHANGHAI SIPG have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SHANGHAI SIPG edge out Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-0 at Huadu Stadium, Championship Round - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.56 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.37 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guangzhou Evergrande FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 40% | Draw 28% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SHANGHAI SIPG 52%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SHANGHAI SIPG win broke the near-deadlock. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.