SHANGHAI SIPG 3-0 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 15 as SHANGHAI SIPG welcome Dalian Zhixing to Pudong Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 26 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Pudong Football Stadium, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — SHANGHAI SIPG are significantly better at Pudong Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.034 / defence 0.966 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.756 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.348. Data: 44 SHANGHAI SIPG games / 14 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 19%. Fair-value odds: SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Dalian Zhixing 5.26. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Pudong Football Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Jun 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 / Dalian Zhixing 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.034 / def 0.966 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.756 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dalian Zhixing xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:35 on Thursday 26 June 2025 at Pudong Football Stadium.
What was the final score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
SHANGHAI SIPG 3 - 0 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Pudong Football Stadium.
What competition is SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives SHANGHAI SIPG a 59% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing in?
SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG home split: 3.00 PPG from 10 | GF 4.30 / GA 0.70 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SHANGHAI SIPG's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Zhixing's attack versus SHANGHAI SIPG's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.53
19%
5.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
Total xG
2.88
0.98
Dalian Zhixing xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.22
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
15%
6.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
34.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 0.98 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SHANGHAI SIPG vs Dalian Zhixing?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SHANGHAI SIPG
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2025, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SHANGHAI SIPG's record when hosting Dalian Zhixing specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SHANGHAI SIPG
1
Draws
1
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 2, Dalian Zhixing have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between SHANGHAI SIPG and Dalian Zhixing?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SHANGHAI SIPG home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dalian Zhixing.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Dalian Zhixing 3-0 at Pudong Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SHANGHAI SIPG 1.90 xG and Dalian Zhixing 0.98 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SHANGHAI SIPG beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Zhixing landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.76 / defence 1.11, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SHANGHAI SIPG 59% | Draw 22% | Dalian Zhixing 19%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.