Shanghai Shenhua 5-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (83%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shanghai Shenhua face Nantong Zhiyun.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Shanghai Shenhua welcome Nantong Zhiyun to Shanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shanghai Shenhua — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Shanghai Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Shanghai Stadium.
Across all Super League games this season, Nantong Zhiyun have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shanghai Shenhua: 3 wins from 3 previous clashes against 0 for Nantong Zhiyun, with 0 draws across those contests.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The historical record gives Shanghai Shenhua a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 44% versus Nantong Zhiyun 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 44% | Nantong Zhiyun 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 3.39 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.362 / defence 0.718 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.030 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.825 / away 1.314. Shanghai Shenhua carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 3.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nantong Zhiyun bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing Shanghai Shenhua's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Shanghai Shenhua games / 52 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 83% | Draw 11% | Nantong Zhiyun 7%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.20 | Draw 9.09 | Nantong Zhiyun 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (83%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (3.39 / 0.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shanghai Shenhua at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.37 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Nantong Zhiyun 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 83% | Draw 11% | Nantong Zhiyun 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 60% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 3.39 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.362 / def 0.718 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.030 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.825 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.39
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Nantong Zhiyun xG
60%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Shanghai Shenhua 5 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 83% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (3 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 3W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 1.36x the league average against Nantong Zhiyun's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 3.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
83%
1.21
11%
9.32
7%
14.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.39
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
4.37
0.97
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.21
83%
Home win
9.32
11%
Draw
14.81
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
3%
29.78
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 3.39 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.97 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 52 games, going 32W 11D 9L for 2.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nantong Zhiyun sit at 0.71 PPG from 52 outings (7W 16D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantong Zhiyun have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (4W 9D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.92 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 32W 11D 9L in their last 52 games (2.06 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 7W 16D 29L in their last 52 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.16 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Nantong Zhiyun been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Nantong Zhiyun in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 4, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Shanghai Shenhua 5-1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 44%, Nantong Zhiyun 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shanghai Shenhua) and 44% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 72% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 44% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Nantong Zhiyun 5-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 3.39 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.97 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.36 / defence 0.72 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.03 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 83% | Draw 11% | Nantong Zhiyun 7%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 83%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 63% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 44%, Nantong Zhiyun 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.