Shanghai Shenhua 6-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shanghai Shenhua (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shanghai Shenhua face Meizhou Kejia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia meet at Shanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 September 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shanghai Shenhua have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shanghai Shenhua have posted 7W 2D 1L at Shanghai Stadium — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Shanghai Shenhua are significantly better at Shanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Shanghai Shenhua's 1.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Meizhou Kejia's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Shanghai Shenhua, who have won 7 of the last 7 meetings against Meizhou Kejia — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
The historical record gives Shanghai Shenhua a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shanghai Shenhua — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 57% versus Meizhou Kejia 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shanghai Shenhua 65% | Meizhou Kejia 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 2.04 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.176 / defence 0.987 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.690 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.812 / away 1.339. Data: 55 Shanghai Shenhua games / 54 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 62% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 15%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Meizhou Kejia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Shanghai Shenhua (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shanghai Shenhua are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 70% | Meizhou Kejia 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Shanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 Sep 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 62% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 2.04 / Meizhou Kejia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.176 / def 0.987 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.690 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.812 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Meizhou Kejia xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 26 September 2025 at Shanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Shanghai Shenhua 6 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Shanghai Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 62% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (7 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 7W | Draws 0 | Meizhou Kejia 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shanghai Shenhua's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.69x) against Shanghai Shenhua's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.36
15%
6.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
2.95
0.91
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.78
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
13%
7.68
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
2%
52.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.91 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shanghai Shenhua's recent record stands at 38W 11D 5L from 54 games, a 2.31 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 30L across 54 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shanghai Shenhua by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Meizhou Kejia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shanghai Shenhua have managed 20W 6D 1L from 27 games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Meizhou Kejia's away record stands at 3W 8D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.07 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 38W 11D 5L in their last 54 games (2.31 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 10W 14D 30L in their last 54 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.44 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shanghai Shenhua won 6-1 on 26 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Shanghai Shenhua
0
Draws
0
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 8, Meizhou Kejia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2025, when Shanghai Shenhua 6-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shanghai Shenhua 67%, Meizhou Kejia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Shanghai Shenhua and 56% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shanghai Shenhua's games and 52% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Shanghai Shenhua's matches and 56% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Shanghai Shenhua and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Shanghai Shenhua have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shanghai Shenhua run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Meizhou Kejia 6-1 at Shanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 2.04 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.18 / defence 0.99 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.69 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 62% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 15%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 65%, Meizhou Kejia 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.74 average — above their attacking norm. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.