Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Shanghai Shenhua take on Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Henan Jianye travel to Jinzhou Stadium to take on Shanghai Shenhua. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 October 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shanghai Shenhua have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Shanghai Shenhua, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shanghai Shenhua's home record at Jinzhou Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinzhou Stadium.
Henan Jianye — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Henan Jianye have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shanghai Shenhua carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shanghai Shenhua, 0 for Henan Jianye and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2022, ended 3–0 with Shanghai Shenhua winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye trading profile (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shanghai Shenhua 55% versus Henan Jianye 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Henan Jianye 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shanghai Shenhua 0.93 xG and Henan Jianye 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.893 / defence 0.731 | Henan Jianye attack 0.871 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.300. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shanghai Shenhua's defence rating of 0.731 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Shanghai Shenhua games / 32 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 35% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 30%. Fair-value odds: Shanghai Shenhua 2.86 | Draw 2.86 | Henan Jianye 3.33. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Henan Jianye's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.75 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Shanghai Shenhua 40% | Henan Jianye 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jinzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shanghai Shenhua 35% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Shanghai Shenhua 0.93 / Henan Jianye 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.893 / def 0.731 | Henan Jianye attack 0.871 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Henan Jianye xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 4 October 2022 at Jinzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Shanghai Shenhua 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Jinzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye part of?
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Shanghai Shenhua a 35% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
Record (1 meetings): Shanghai Shenhua 1W | Draws 0 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye in?
Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Henan Jianye (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shanghai Shenhua's attack at 0.89x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Shanghai Shenhua's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.85
35%
2.84
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Shanghai Shenhua xG
Total xG
1.75
0.83
Henan Jianye xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.87
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
12%
8.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 14.3 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 0.83 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shanghai Shenhua come into this having played 40 games, going 20W 13D 7L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Shanghai Shenhua is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.52 PPG from 40 outings (16W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shanghai Shenhua on 1.82 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Shanghai Shenhua's home form reads 10W 6D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (4W 8D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shanghai Shenhua come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shanghai Shenhua are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.25 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Henan Jianye in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shanghai Shenhua
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Shanghai Shenhua have gone 20W 13D 7L in their last 40 games (1.82 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 16W 13D 11L in their last 40 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shanghai Shenhua at home or Henan Jianye away?
Shanghai Shenhua's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shanghai Shenhua at home: 2.00 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Shanghai Shenhua or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shanghai Shenhua have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Shanghai Shenhua have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2022, when Shanghai Shenhua won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shanghai Shenhua's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Shanghai Shenhua
2
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Shanghai Shenhua have won 7, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Henan Jianye 0-3 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shanghai Shenhua see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shanghai Shenhua 39% BTTS, Henan Jianye 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Shanghai Shenhua and 22% for Henan Jianye.
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 50%; Henan Jianye in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shanghai Shenhua home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shanghai Shenhua play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent matches and 22% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Shanghai Shenhua's recent games and 22% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Jinzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shanghai Shenhua 0.93 xG and Henan Jianye 0.83 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.89 / defence 0.73 against Henan Jianye attack 0.87 / defence 0.76, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shanghai Shenhua 35% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 30%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shanghai Shenhua 40%, Henan Jianye 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shanghai Shenhua 1.82 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.