Shandong Luneng 1-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium plays host to Shandong Luneng versus Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 21 April 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Shandong Luneng's overall Super League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Shandong Luneng's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across 10 games at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this term (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 2.41 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.462 / defence 0.821 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.836 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.293. Shandong Luneng carry an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Shandong Luneng games / 1 Nantong Zhiyun games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 70% | Draw 20% | Nantong Zhiyun 11%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | Nantong Zhiyun 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (70%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 70% | Draw 20% | Nantong Zhiyun 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 55% | xG Shandong Luneng 2.41 / Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.462 / def 0.821 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.836 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Shandong Luneng 1 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 70% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Shandong Luneng home split: 2.70 PPG from 10 | GF 3.70 / GA 0.50 | CS 7.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (0.84x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
70%
1.43
20%
5.09
11%
9.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.30
0.89
Nantong Zhiyun xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
9.40
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
9%
11.15
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
1%
104.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 0.89 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Shandong Luneng go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 2, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 0-2 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng and Nantong Zhiyun finished level at 1-1 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 2.41 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 0.89 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.46 / defence 0.82 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.84 / defence 1.19, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 70% | Draw 20% | Nantong Zhiyun 11%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.