Shandong Luneng 4-2 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shandong Luneng at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.
Form
Shandong Luneng (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shandong Luneng at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shandong Luneng are significantly better at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Hangzhou Greentown's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Hangzhou Greentown away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.00 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Shandong Luneng 3W, Hangzhou Greentown 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 53% versus Hangzhou Greentown 65%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shandong Luneng 55% | Hangzhou Greentown 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 0.957 / defence 0.913 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.001 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.406. Data: 41 Shandong Luneng games / 41 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 44% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 29%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shandong Luneng at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shandong Luneng if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shandong Luneng 50% | Hangzhou Greentown 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 44% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Shandong Luneng 1.62 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 0.957 / def 0.913 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.001 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Hangzhou Greentown xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 44% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (6 meetings): Shandong Luneng 3W | Draws 1 | Hangzhou Greentown 2W.
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Shandong Luneng's attack at 0.96x the league average against Hangzhou Greentown's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.00x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.68
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
2.91
1.28
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.21
6%
17.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.28 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 19D 12L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.55 PPG from 60 outings (27W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Shandong Luneng against 1.55 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 20W 6D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shandong Luneng are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.20 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 3-0 on 25 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
3
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Shandong Luneng have won 4, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 53%, Hangzhou Greentown 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Shandong Luneng and 77% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shandong Luneng play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Shandong Luneng's games and 67% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shandong Luneng vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 77% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Shandong Luneng have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Hangzhou Greentown 4-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.62 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.28 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 44% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 29%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 55%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shandong Luneng 1.77 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shandong Luneng win broke the near-deadlock. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.