Shandong Luneng 4-2 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shandong Luneng (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shandong Luneng face Changchun Yatai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Changchun Yatai make the trip to Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Shandong Luneng in Super League (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Friday 1 March 2024 at 10:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shandong Luneng's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Changchun Yatai's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Shandong Luneng's favour (2.30 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Shandong Luneng, who have won 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Changchun Yatai — Changchun Yatai have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Shandong Luneng 3–0 Changchun Yatai — a Shandong Luneng win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Shandong Luneng and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Shandong Luneng goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shandong Luneng 50% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shandong Luneng 61% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shandong Luneng 1.92 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shandong Luneng attack 1.219 / defence 0.918 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.950 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.276. Data: built from Shandong Luneng's last 30 games and Changchun Yatai's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 56% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 22%. Fair-value odds: Shandong Luneng 1.78 | Draw 4.49 | Changchun Yatai 4.63. The model has a clear lean to Shandong Luneng (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shandong Luneng as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Shandong Luneng's last 10 home games and Changchun Yatai's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shandong Luneng 50% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Shandong Luneng 30 games, Changchun Yatai 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 10:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shandong Luneng 56% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Shandong Luneng 1.92 / Changchun Yatai 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Shandong Luneng attack 1.219 / def 0.918 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.950 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Shandong Luneng (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Shandong Luneng xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Changchun Yatai xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 10:00 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng 4 - 2 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (China).
Who is favourite to win Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Shandong Luneng a 56% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shandong Luneng the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shandong Luneng's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (0.95x) against Shandong Luneng's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Shandong Luneng's last 30 games and Changchun Yatai's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shandong Luneng Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.49
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Shandong Luneng xG
Total xG
3.04
1.11
Changchun Yatai xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
15%
6.83
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
3%
31.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.11 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shandong Luneng come into this having played 64 games, going 41W 13D 10L for 2.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (21W 20D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shandong Luneng's home form reads 27W 3D 2L across their last 32 home games, a 2.62 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.12 PPG overall — Shandong Luneng are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 32 away games (10W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shandong Luneng are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Shandong Luneng (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai Form FAQs
What form are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 games (2.12 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shandong Luneng at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Shandong Luneng's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shandong Luneng at home: 2.62 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shandong Luneng or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shandong Luneng have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 9 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shandong Luneng have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won Shandong Luneng 4-0 Changchun Yatai on 16 Jun 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shandong Luneng have gone 5W 0D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shandong Luneng
2
Draws
0
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Shandong Luneng have won 8, Changchun Yatai have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2025: Shandong Luneng 2-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shandong Luneng 41%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Shandong Luneng and 56% for Changchun Yatai. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shandong Luneng home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shandong Luneng vs Changchun Yatai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Shandong Luneng's matches and 56% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Shandong Luneng and Changchun Yatai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Shandong Luneng's recent matches and 62% of Changchun Yatai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 4-2 at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shandong Luneng 1.92 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.11 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Shandong Luneng beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shandong Luneng attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shandong Luneng 56% | Draw 22% | Changchun Yatai 22%, with Shandong Luneng to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shandong Luneng 61%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.