Qingdao Jonoon 0-5 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host SHANGHAI SIPG at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 August 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, SHANGHAI SIPG have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. SHANGHAI SIPG's 2.30 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Qingdao Jonoon have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2023, ended 1–2 with SHANGHAI SIPG winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Qingdao Jonoon in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
SHANGHAI SIPG in-play tendencies (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 45% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 45% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.065 / defence 0.971 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.585 / defence 0.536. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.212. SHANGHAI SIPG's defence strength of 0.536 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. SHANGHAI SIPG have an above-average attack strength of 1.585 — the away xG of 1.86 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 20 Qingdao Jonoon games / 54 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 16% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 59%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 6.25 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1.69. The model has a clear lean to SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SHANGHAI SIPG are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Jonoon 40% | SHANGHAI SIPG 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Aug 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 16% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.065 / def 0.971 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.585 / def 0.536 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: SHANGHAI SIPG (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.86
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 8 August 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 5 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 16% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 59% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SHANGHAI SIPG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 1.06x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 0.54x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SHANGHAI SIPG's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SHANGHAI SIPG Win
16%
6.44
26%
3.86
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.75
1.86
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
6.44
16%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
16%
6.45
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
2%
41.56
24%
4.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.86 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 5W 4D 11L from 20 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 15W 4D 1L across 20 games — 2.45 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SHANGHAI SIPG by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 8W 2D 0L across 10 trips, a 2.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SHANGHAI SIPG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.10 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 games (0.95 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 15W 4D 1L in their last 20 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.70 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.60 PPG.
Have Qingdao Jonoon or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Qingdao Jonoon have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2023, when SHANGHAI SIPG won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting SHANGHAI SIPG specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
0
Draws
6
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 7 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 40%, SHANGHAI SIPG 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 50% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: SHANGHAI SIPG in 60%; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 40% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SHANGHAI SIPG run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SHANGHAI SIPG beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-5 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 0.89 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.86 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG outscored their 1.86 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.58 / defence 0.54, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 16% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 59%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 45%, SHANGHAI SIPG 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.