Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Shandong Luneng travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Shandong Luneng — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.55 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.089 / defence 1.079 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.086 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.293. Data: 9 Qingdao Jonoon games / 43 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 36% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 35%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Shandong Luneng 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 36% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.55 / Shandong Luneng 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.089 / def 1.079 | Shandong Luneng attack 1.086 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Shandong Luneng xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 1 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 36% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng in?
Shandong Luneng (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Shandong Luneng away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
36%
2.76
29%
3.44
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.06
1.51
Shandong Luneng xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.58
7%
13.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.51 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
Shandong Luneng
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
3
Draws
3
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
From 7 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Shandong Luneng have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 4-1 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.55 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.51 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.09 / defence 1.08 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.09 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 36% | Draw 29% | Shandong Luneng 35%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.