Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Nantong Zhiyun at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nantong Zhiyun — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Nantong Zhiyun, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Qingdao Jonoon carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Qingdao Jonoon, 1 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Nantong Zhiyun winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Nantong Zhiyun in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 40% versus Nantong Zhiyun 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Nantong Zhiyun 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.43 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.953 / defence 1.133 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.840 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.160. Data: 25 Qingdao Jonoon games / 25 Nantong Zhiyun games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 28%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Nantong Zhiyun 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Qingdao Jonoon 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.43 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.953 / def 1.133 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.840 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Nantong Zhiyun xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Qingdao Jonoon 3 - 1 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 44% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (1 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 0W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Nantong Zhiyun's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Nantong Zhiyun's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
44%
2.28
28%
3.60
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.53
1.10
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.10 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Qingdao Jonoon's recent record stands at 6W 5D 14L from 25 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nantong Zhiyun, meanwhile, have gone 3W 10D 12L across 25 games — 0.76 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nantong Zhiyun is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.92 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Qingdao Jonoon have managed 6W 2D 4L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.92 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nantong Zhiyun's away record stands at 1W 6D 5L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Nantong Zhiyun
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 games (0.92 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 3W 10D 12L in their last 25 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.67 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Nantong Zhiyun specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
2
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Nantong Zhiyun have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun?
Nantong Zhiyun have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 33%, Nantong Zhiyun 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Qingdao Jonoon and 17% for Nantong Zhiyun.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Nantong Zhiyun?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 67% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent games and 17% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Nantong Zhiyun 3-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.43 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.10 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 44% | Draw 28% | Nantong Zhiyun 28%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 44%, Nantong Zhiyun 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.92 PPG, Nantong Zhiyun 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.