Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to take on Qingdao Jonoon. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 April 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.858 / defence 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.027 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.308. Data: 2 Qingdao Jonoon games / 36 Beijing Guoan games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 25% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 44%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Beijing Guoan 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Apr 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 25% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 / Beijing Guoan 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.858 / def 1.150 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.027 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Beijing Guoan xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:35 on Tuesday 25 April 2023 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Qingdao Jonoon 3 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 25% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Beijing Guoan away split: 2.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating (0.86) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
25%
4.08
31%
3.19
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.66
1.54
Beijing Guoan xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
19.11
14%
6.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.54 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Beijing Guoan won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
From 7 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Beijing Guoan 4-2 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Jonoon cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon beat Beijing Guoan 3-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.54 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 2/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 25% | Draw 31% | Beijing Guoan 44%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Qingdao Jonoon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.