Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Qingdao Huanghai vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Suzhou City Sports Centre to face Qingdao Huanghai in Super League, Relegation Round - 7. The match kicks off on Friday 31 December 2021 at 07:30 UTC.

Form

Qingdao Huanghai (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Huanghai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Qingdao Huanghai's home record at Suzhou City Sports Centre: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Super League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.

Tianjin Teda have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tianjin Teda's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tianjin Teda are 0.60 PPG clear of Qingdao Huanghai in recent Super League fixtures (1.00 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Qingdao Huanghai, 0 for Tianjin Teda and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Qingdao Huanghai winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Qingdao Huanghai half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 60% of games.

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Huanghai 35% versus Tianjin Teda 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Huanghai 50% | Tianjin Teda 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 1.12 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.788 / defence 1.464 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.688 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai's attack strength of 0.788 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Tianjin Teda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Qingdao Huanghai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Qingdao Huanghai games / 14 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 30% | Draw 32% | Tianjin Teda 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Tianjin Teda 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Qingdao Huanghai 40% | Tianjin Teda 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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