Qingdao Huanghai 1-0 Chongqing Lifan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Qingdao Huanghai take on Chongqing Lifan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tianhe Stadium plays host to Qingdao Huanghai versus Chongqing Lifan in Super League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 1.10 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.964 / defence 1.108 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.807 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 0.798 / away 1.197. Chongqing Lifan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Qingdao Huanghai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Qingdao Huanghai games / 4 Chongqing Lifan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 32% | Draw 37% | Chongqing Lifan 31%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 3.12 | Draw 2.70 | Chongqing Lifan 3.23. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 32% | Draw 37% | Chongqing Lifan 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Qingdao Huanghai 1.10 / Chongqing Lifan 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.964 / def 1.108 | Chongqing Lifan attack 0.807 / def 1.428 | league avg home 0.798 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Chongqing Lifan xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 15 May 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan?
Qingdao Huanghai 1 - 0 Chongqing Lifan.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 32% chance of winning, Chongqing Lifan a 31% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Chongqing Lifan will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Chongqing Lifan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Huanghai and Chongqing Lifan in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Qingdao Huanghai's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Chongqing Lifan's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Chongqing Lifan's attack (0.81x) against Qingdao Huanghai's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
37%
2.67
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.17
1.07
Chongqing Lifan xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Chongqing Lifan expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 1.07 for Chongqing Lifan, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Chongqing Lifan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
Chongqing Lifan
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Qingdao Huanghai
0
Draws
1
Chongqing Lifan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Chongqing Lifan?
From 2 meetings on record, Qingdao Huanghai have won 1, Chongqing Lifan have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Chongqing Lifan last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 1-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Chongqing Lifan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Huanghai edge out Chongqing Lifan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Huanghai beat Chongqing Lifan 1-0 at Tianhe Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 1.10 xG and Chongqing Lifan 1.07 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Lifan landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.96 / defence 1.11 against Chongqing Lifan attack 0.81 / defence 1.43, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 32% | Draw 37% | Chongqing Lifan 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Qingdao Huanghai win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.