Meizhou Kejia 0-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Meizhou Kejia at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.

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Full Analysis

Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium plays host to Meizhou Kejia versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League (matchday 5). Kick-off: Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Meizhou Kejia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Meizhou Kejia have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Qingdao Jonoon's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Meizhou Kejia's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Qingdao Jonoon's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Meizhou Kejia 1–0 Qingdao Jonoon — a Meizhou Kejia win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 70% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 63% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.18 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.895 / defence 1.108 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.681 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.387. Qingdao Jonoon's attack rating of 0.681 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Meizhou Kejia's last 34 games and Qingdao Jonoon's last 34.

Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 39% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Jonoon 32%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 2.57 | Draw 3.47 | Qingdao Jonoon 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Meizhou Kejia at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Meizhou Kejia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Meizhou Kejia 70% (last 10 home games) | Qingdao Jonoon 30% (last 10 away games).

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