Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Henan Jianye host Wuhan Three Towns at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wuhan Three Towns stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Wuhan Three Towns's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Henan Jianye have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Henan Jianye register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Wuhan Three Towns have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Henan Jianye's 2 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 5–2 with Henan Jianye winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wuhan Three Towns have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 63% and Wuhan Three Towns 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.96 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.043 / defence 0.965 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.931 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.819 / away 1.171. Data: 32 Henan Jianye games / 32 Wuhan Three Towns games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 20%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Wuhan Three Towns 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Wuhan Three Towns lead the H2H ledger, but Henan Jianye carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 70% | Wuhan Three Towns 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Henan Jianye 1.96 / Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.043 / def 0.965 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.931 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.819 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Wuhan Three Towns xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Henan Jianye 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 59% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Record (8 meetings): Henan Jianye 2W | Draws 1 | Wuhan Three Towns 5W.
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.04x the league average against Wuhan Three Towns's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
59%
1.71
22%
4.62
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.01
1.05
Wuhan Three Towns xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
3%
35.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 1.05 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 19W 16D 25L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Wuhan Three Towns's form line: 14W 14D 32L from 60 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Henan Jianye on 1.22 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 6W 7D 17L from 30 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Three Towns are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 games (1.22 PPG), while Wuhan Three Towns have gone 14W 14D 32L in their last 60 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Wuhan Three Towns away?
Henan Jianye's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 1.43 PPG; Wuhan Three Towns away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
2
Draws
5
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 9 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 63%, Wuhan Three Towns 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Henan Jianye) and 53% (Wuhan Three Towns). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Wuhan Three Towns?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Henan Jianye's games and 60% of Wuhan Three Towns's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Wuhan Three Towns usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Henan Jianye's matches and 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's.
Do Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Wuhan Three Towns in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Henan Jianye and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.96 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.04 / defence 0.96 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 59% | Draw 22% | Wuhan Three Towns 20%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Wuhan Three Towns 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.22 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.