Henan Jianye 0-1 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Henan Jianye welcome Meizhou Kejia to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Henan Jianye trading profile (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia trading profile (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 46% versus Meizhou Kejia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 64% | Meizhou Kejia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.99 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.629 / defence 0.966 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.697 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.149. Henan Jianye carry an above-average attack strength of 1.629 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 25 Henan Jianye games / 11 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 66% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 14%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Meizhou Kejia 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Henan Jianye 60% | Meizhou Kejia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 66% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 47% | xG Henan Jianye 1.99 / Meizhou Kejia 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.629 / def 0.966 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.697 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Meizhou Kejia xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Henan Jianye 0 - 1 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 66% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Henan Jianye's attack at 1.63x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 1-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.89
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
2.77
0.77
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
14%
7.34
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
2%
53.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.77 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Henan Jianye have picked up 2.36 PPG on a 8W 2D 1L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 4W 5D 2L from 11 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Henan Jianye are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Henan Jianye have posted 3.00 PPG from 5 outings (5W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.36 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.27 scored and 0.91 conceded. Henan Jianye's scoring rate against Meizhou Kejia's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 64%.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 8W 2D 1L in their last 11 games (2.36 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 4W 5D 2L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Henan Jianye's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 3.00 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Henan Jianye's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
3
Draws
3
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Meizhou Kejia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 80%, Meizhou Kejia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Henan Jianye and 20% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia in 40%; Meizhou Kejia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Henan Jianye's games and 40% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Henan Jianye vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Henan Jianye's matches and 20% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Meizhou Kejia defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Meizhou Kejia beat Henan Jianye 0-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.99 xG and Meizhou Kejia 0.77 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.63 / defence 0.97 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.70 / defence 0.87, drawn from 25/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 66% | Draw 20% | Meizhou Kejia 14%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Meizhou Kejia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 64%, Meizhou Kejia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.55. Form was overturned, with Meizhou Kejia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.