Hebei Zhongji 1-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Zall at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Hebei Zhongji welcome Wuhan Zall to Suzhou City Sports Centre. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.81 xG and Wuhan Zall 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.833 / away 2.502. Data: 0 Hebei Zhongji games / 0 Wuhan Zall games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 8% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Zall 71%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 12.50 | Draw 4.76 | Wuhan Zall 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Zall (71%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Zall are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Suzhou City Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 23 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 8% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Zall 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 53% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.81 / Wuhan Zall 2.45 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.833 / away 2.502 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Zall (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
2.45
Wuhan Zall xG
53%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 23 April 2021 at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Hebei Zhongji 1 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou City Sports Centre.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 8% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 71% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Zall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hebei Zhongji's attack at 0.85x the league average against Wuhan Zall's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Zall's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 2.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-3 (9.4%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Zall Win
8%
12.21
21%
4.80
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
3.26
2.45
Wuhan Zall xG
12.21
8%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
9%
11.54
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
1%
140.93
31%
3.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 9.4 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 2.45 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Pre-Season
Wuhan Zall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 June 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Wuhan Zall specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hebei Zhongji
2
Draws
1
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 30 June 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 2-1 Wuhan Zall.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji and Wuhan Zall finished level at 1-1 at Suzhou City Sports Centre, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.81 xG and Wuhan Zall 2.45 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Zall landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 8% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Zall 71%, with Wuhan Zall to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.