Hebei Zhongji 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Hebei Zhongji take on Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kunshan Sports Center Stadium plays host to Hebei Zhongji versus Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 31 July 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hebei Zhongji's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 2L from 8 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.75 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 0L across 4 games at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tianjin Teda have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 Super League outings this season: 1W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.62 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 0W 2D 1L from 3 away outings — 0.67 PPG. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The points-per-game gap of 1.13 in Hebei Zhongji's favour (1.75 vs 0.62) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hebei Zhongji 1W, Tianjin Teda 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2021, ended 1–0 with Hebei Zhongji winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Hebei Zhongji — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 50% versus Tianjin Teda 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hebei Zhongji 25% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 0.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.966 / defence 0.954 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.607 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.003 / away 1.174. Data: 8 Hebei Zhongji games / 8 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 35% | Draw 43% | Tianjin Teda 22%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 2.86 | Draw 2.33 | Tianjin Teda 4.55. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Tianjin Teda's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 21% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hebei Zhongji 75% | Tianjin Teda 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 35% | Draw 43% | Tianjin Teda 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 33% | xG Hebei Zhongji 0.91 / Tianjin Teda 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 0.966 / def 0.954 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.607 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.003 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Tianjin Teda xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Hebei Zhongji 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 35% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 22% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 1W | Draws 0 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 4W-2D-2L in 8 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.62 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hebei Zhongji's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.61x) against Hebei Zhongji's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.83
43%
2.35
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
1.59
0.68
Tianjin Teda xG
2.83
35%
Home win
2.35
43%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.58
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.3 | 13.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.6 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.0%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 0.68 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hebei Zhongji's recent record stands at 4W 2D 2L from 8 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 5L across 8 games — 0.62 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hebei Zhongji by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hebei Zhongji have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Hebei Zhongji are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hebei Zhongji come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.62 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 2.33 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won 5-0 on 7 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hebei Zhongji have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hebei Zhongji
0
Draws
2
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 2, Tianjin Teda have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2022, when Tianjin Teda 5-0 Hebei Zhongji.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Tianjin Teda tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 67% (Hebei Zhongji) and 0% (Tianjin Teda) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Hebei Zhongji and 0% for Tianjin Teda.
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 67%; Tianjin Teda in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Hebei Zhongji's recent matches and 0% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 0% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hebei Zhongji edge out Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 0.91 xG and Tianjin Teda 0.68 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.61 / defence 0.94, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 35% | Draw 43% | Tianjin Teda 22%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hebei Zhongji win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 25%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hebei Zhongji arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.