Hebei Zhongji 0-0 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hebei Zhongji at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Beijing Guoan travel to Kunshan Sports Center Stadium to take on Hebei Zhongji. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 August 2021, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hebei Zhongji's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 0L across 5 games at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Super League games this season, Beijing Guoan have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Beijing Guoan have posted 2W 0D 3L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hebei Zhongji 1.80 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hebei Zhongji, 1 for Beijing Guoan and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2021, ended 1–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hebei Zhongji in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Beijing Guoan in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hebei Zhongji 50% versus Beijing Guoan 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Hebei Zhongji 30% | Beijing Guoan 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hebei Zhongji 1.31 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hebei Zhongji attack 1.057 / defence 0.962 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.783 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.025 / away 1.235. Beijing Guoan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Hebei Zhongji's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Hebei Zhongji games / 10 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 42% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 23%. Fair-value odds: Hebei Zhongji 2.38 | Draw 2.86 | Beijing Guoan 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hebei Zhongji are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hebei Zhongji offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Hebei Zhongji 80% | Beijing Guoan 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 Aug 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hebei Zhongji 42% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Hebei Zhongji 1.31 / Beijing Guoan 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Hebei Zhongji attack 1.057 / def 0.962 | Beijing Guoan attack 0.783 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.025 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Hebei Zhongji (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Hebei Zhongji xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Beijing Guoan xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 6 August 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Hebei Zhongji 0 - 0 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Hebei Zhongji a 42% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 23% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Hebei Zhongji the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan?
Record (1 meetings): Hebei Zhongji 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 1W.
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan in?
Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hebei Zhongji's attack rating (1.06) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Hebei Zhongji's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hebei Zhongji Win
42%
2.40
35%
2.83
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Hebei Zhongji xG
Total xG
2.24
0.93
Beijing Guoan xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
6%
16.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Hebei Zhongji and 0.93 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Hebei Zhongji have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 5W 3D 2L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hebei Zhongji on 1.80 PPG, Beijing Guoan on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hebei Zhongji have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Hebei Zhongji are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hebei Zhongji come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hebei Zhongji are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Beijing Guoan in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Hebei Zhongji have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hebei Zhongji at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Hebei Zhongji's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hebei Zhongji at home: 2.20 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Hebei Zhongji or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hebei Zhongji have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2022, when Beijing Guoan won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hebei Zhongji's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hebei Zhongji
1
Draws
3
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 10 December 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hebei Zhongji 80%, Beijing Guoan 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hebei Zhongji) and 40% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hebei Zhongji home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hebei Zhongji play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hebei Zhongji's games and 40% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hebei Zhongji vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hebei Zhongji's recent games and 40% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Hebei Zhongji have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hebei Zhongji's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hebei Zhongji and Beijing Guoan finished level at 0-0 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hebei Zhongji 1.31 xG and Beijing Guoan 0.93 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hebei Zhongji fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hebei Zhongji attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Beijing Guoan attack 0.78 / defence 1.21, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hebei Zhongji 42% | Draw 35% | Beijing Guoan 23%, with Hebei Zhongji to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hebei Zhongji 30%, Beijing Guoan 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hebei Zhongji 1.80 PPG, Beijing Guoan 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.