Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 39%, yet in-form Hangzhou Greentown provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 plays host to Hangzhou Greentown versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Tuesday 7 June 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 Super League outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Hangzhou Greentown have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Changchun Yatai away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Hangzhou Greentown's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Changchun Yatai's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.871 / defence 1.150 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.016 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.202. Data: 1 Hangzhou Greentown games / 15 Changchun Yatai games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 39%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Changchun Yatai 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Changchun Yatai as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hangzhou Greentown (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.6 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2 • Kick-off: Tuesday 7 Jun 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 / Changchun Yatai 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.871 / def 1.150 | Changchun Yatai attack 1.016 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Changchun Yatai xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 12:30 on Tuesday 7 June 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 35% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-D. Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (0.87) and Changchun Yatai's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Changchun Yatai's attack (1.02x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
The sample (1/15 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.90
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.73
1.40
Changchun Yatai xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.48
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.40 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Changchun Yatai's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hangzhou Greentown are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Changchun Yatai.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 0.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hangzhou Greentown have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Early Season
Changchun Yatai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
5
Draws
1
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai?
From 8 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, Changchun Yatai have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Changchun Yatai 3-3 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Changchun Yatai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 50% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Changchun Yatai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 0% of Changchun Yatai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Hangzhou Greentown's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown and Changchun Yatai finished level at 0-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium Field 2, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.33 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.40 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Changchun Yatai attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 1/15 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 35% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 39%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 0%, Changchun Yatai 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Changchun Yatai conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.