Guangzhou R&F 1-4 Shijiazhuang Y. J. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guangzhou R&F host Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 December 2022 at 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guangzhou R&F have posted 3W 2D 5L at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Guangzhou R&F's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Guangzhou R&F register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Guangzhou R&F, 0 for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Guangzhou R&F trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 49% versus Shijiazhuang Y. J. 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 53% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.41 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.868 / defence 1.190 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.361 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.384. Shijiazhuang Y. J. have an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — the away xG of 2.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Guangzhou R&F games / 47 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 23% | Draw 22% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Shijiazhuang Y. J. (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 2.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.65 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 0.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou R&F 60% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 23% | Draw 22% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG Guangzhou R&F 1.41 / Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.24 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.868 / def 1.190 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.361 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Guangzhou R&F xG
Expected Goals
2.24
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kick off?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. kicked off at 07:00 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Guangzhou R&F 1 - 4 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Where is Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. being played?
The match is being played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. part of?
Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou R&F a 23% chance of winning, Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Record (3 meetings): Guangzhou R&F 1W | Draws 2 | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W.
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in?
Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guangzhou R&F's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack versus Guangzhou R&F's defence, projects 2.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 1-3 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
23%
4.37
22%
4.62
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
1 – 3
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Guangzhou R&F xG
Total xG
3.65
2.24
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
4.37
23%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.16
Clean Sheet
11%
9.40
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
2%
41.11
14%
7.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Guangzhou R&F and 2.24 for Shijiazhuang Y. J., a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guangzhou R&F's recent record stands at 12W 13D 30L from 55 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Shijiazhuang Y. J., meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 22L across 55 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guangzhou R&F on 0.89 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Guangzhou R&F have managed 7W 5D 15L from 27 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record stands at 8W 6D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Guangzhou R&F are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Shijiazhuang Y. J. are on 1.24 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou R&F
Current Season
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. in coming into this match?
Guangzhou R&F have gone 12W 13D 30L in their last 55 games (0.89 PPG), while Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou R&F at home or Shijiazhuang Y. J. away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou R&F at home: 0.96 PPG; Shijiazhuang Y. J. away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guangzhou R&F's record when hosting Shijiazhuang Y. J. specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Guangzhou R&F
2
Draws
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. last play each other?
They last met on 31 December 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-4 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou R&F 59%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Guangzhou R&F and 70% for Shijiazhuang Y. J.. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F have failed to score in 30% of games; Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou R&F home games / Shijiazhuang Y. J. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou R&F play Shijiazhuang Y. J.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Guangzhou R&F's games and 67% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou R&F vs Shijiazhuang Y. J. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Guangzhou R&F's matches and 70% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s.
Do Guangzhou R&F and Shijiazhuang Y. J. tend to score early?
Guangzhou R&F have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shijiazhuang Y. J. in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shijiazhuang Y. J. run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Guangzhou R&F.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shijiazhuang Y. J. beat Guangzhou R&F 1-4 at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou R&F 1.41 xG and Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.24 xG, a combined 3.65. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. outscored their 2.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou R&F attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 1.36 / defence 1.15, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou R&F 23% | Draw 22% | Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou R&F 53%, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou R&F 0.89 PPG, Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shijiazhuang Y. J. win broke the near-deadlock. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.