Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tianhe Stadium plays host to Guangzhou Evergrande FC versus SHANGHAI SIPG in Super League, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 0L across 8 games at Tianhe Stadium this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Tianhe Stadium than their overall form suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SHANGHAI SIPG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 2L across 8 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, 1.90 for SHANGHAI SIPG — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Guangzhou Evergrande FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 62%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SHANGHAI SIPG half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 53% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 53% | SHANGHAI SIPG 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.67 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.362 / defence 1.061 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.942 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 14 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 14 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 62% | SHANGHAI SIPG 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Tianhe Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.67 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.362 / def 1.061 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.942 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Tianhe Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Tianhe Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 44% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack at 1.36x the league average against SHANGHAI SIPG's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (0.94x) against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
44%
2.25
28%
3.58
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.95
1.28
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
5%
19.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.28 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent record stands at 10W 4D 3L from 17 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SHANGHAI SIPG, meanwhile, have gone 10W 4D 3L across 17 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for SHANGHAI SIPG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Guangzhou Evergrande FC against 2.00 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have managed 6W 2D 0L from 8 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record stands at 3W 3D 2L across 8 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SHANGHAI SIPG's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 2.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 2.00 scored and 0.59 conceded. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's scoring rate against SHANGHAI SIPG's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; SHANGHAI SIPG in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
SHANGHAI SIPG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 10W 4D 3L in their last 17 games (2.00 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 10W 4D 3L in their last 17 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 2.50 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 July 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
SHANGHAI SIPG go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 4 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 8 July 2022, when Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-1 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 62%, SHANGHAI SIPG 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 50% (SHANGHAI SIPG). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's games and 62% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's matches and 50% of SHANGHAI SIPG's.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guangzhou Evergrande FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guangzhou Evergrande FC and SHANGHAI SIPG finished level at 0-0 at Tianhe Stadium, Championship Round - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.67 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.28 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.36 / defence 1.06 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 44% | Draw 28% | SHANGHAI SIPG 28%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 53%, SHANGHAI SIPG 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.00 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.