Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guangzhou Evergrande FC host Dalian Aerbin at Huadu Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 24 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Huadu Stadium, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Super League games this season, Dalian Aerbin have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 0.90 PPG versus Dalian Aerbin's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Guangzhou Evergrande FC in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40% versus Dalian Aerbin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43% | Dalian Aerbin 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.42 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.971 / defence 0.983 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.957 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.306. Data: 27 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 26 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 32%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Dalian Aerbin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guangzhou Evergrande FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guangzhou Evergrande FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 30% | Dalian Aerbin 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Huadu Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.42 / Dalian Aerbin 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.971 / def 0.983 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.957 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Guangzhou Evergrande FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Dalian Aerbin xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 24 August 2022 at Huadu Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Huadu Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 41% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guangzhou Evergrande FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack rating (0.97) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guangzhou Evergrande FC Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.65
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
2.64
1.23
Dalian Aerbin xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 1.23 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guangzhou Evergrande FC come into this having played 35 games, going 16W 5D 14L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dalian Aerbin sit at 0.97 PPG from 35 outings (9W 7D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home form reads 10W 2D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Dalian Aerbin have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guangzhou Evergrande FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.03 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 16W 5D 14L in their last 35 games (1.51 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 9W 7D 19L in their last 35 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 1.88 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
2
Draws
0
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2022, when Dalian Aerbin 1-1 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guangzhou Evergrande FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41%, Dalian Aerbin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 53% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 47% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 53% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Guangzhou Evergrande FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Huadu Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Dalian Aerbin drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1.42 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.23 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Guangzhou Evergrande FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.98 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 41% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 32%, with Guangzhou Evergrande FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 43%, Dalian Aerbin 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Guangzhou Evergrande FC arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.