Dalian Zhixing 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium plays host to Dalian Zhixing versus Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 3 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dalian Zhixing have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Zhixing, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Dalian Zhixing have gone 6W 1D 2L this season (9 games, 2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Qingdao Jonoon's overall Super League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Dalian Zhixing's favour (1.70 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Dalian Zhixing 0W, Qingdao Jonoon 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dalian Zhixing — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Zhixing 39% versus Qingdao Jonoon 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dalian Zhixing 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.52 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.750 / defence 0.825 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.627 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.339. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Dalian Zhixing games / 48 Qingdao Jonoon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 57% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Jonoon 17%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Qingdao Jonoon 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Zhixing (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dalian Zhixing at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dalian Zhixing 22% | Qingdao Jonoon 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 57% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Jonoon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 39% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.52 / Qingdao Jonoon 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.750 / def 0.825 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.627 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Dalian Zhixing (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Qingdao Jonoon xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 3 August 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Dalian Zhixing 2 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 57% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dalian Zhixing the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Zhixing 0W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 0W.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dalian Zhixing's attack rating (0.75) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Qingdao Jonoon's attack (0.63x) against Dalian Zhixing's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Zhixing Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.87
17%
5.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.22
0.69
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
5.92
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
4%
27.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 0.69 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dalian Zhixing's recent record stands at 7W 5D 6L from 18 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dalian Zhixing is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Qingdao Jonoon, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 11L across 18 games — 0.61 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dalian Zhixing by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Qingdao Jonoon heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dalian Zhixing have managed 6W 1D 2L from 9 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Dalian Zhixing are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon's away record stands at 0W 1D 8L across 9 trips, a 0.11 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dalian Zhixing come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dalian Zhixing are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 0.83 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Blended
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Dalian Zhixing have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 2W 5D 11L in their last 18 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Zhixing at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Dalian Zhixing's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Zhixing at home: 2.11 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.11 PPG.
Have Dalian Zhixing or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Zhixing have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dalian Zhixing have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Dalian Zhixing) and 44% (Qingdao Jonoon) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Dalian Zhixing and 44% for Qingdao Jonoon.
On the defensive side: Dalian Zhixing keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Zhixing play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Dalian Zhixing's recent matches and 44% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Zhixing vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Dalian Zhixing's recent games and 44% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Zhixing and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Dalian Zhixing have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dalian Zhixing cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.52 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 0.69 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.75 / defence 0.82 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.63 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 57% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Jonoon 17%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 28%, Qingdao Jonoon 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.61. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.