Dalian Aerbin 1-3 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 44%, yet in-form Shandong Luneng provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dalian Aerbin host Shandong Luneng at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 July 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Dalian Aerbin — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dalian Aerbin's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Super League games this season, Shandong Luneng have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shandong Luneng, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shandong Luneng have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Shandong Luneng's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Dalian Aerbin's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Shandong Luneng 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2022, ended 0–3 with Shandong Luneng winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (31 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Shandong Luneng in-play tendencies (31 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dalian Aerbin 45% versus Shandong Luneng 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dalian Aerbin 45% | Shandong Luneng 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Aerbin 1.47 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.934 / defence 1.097 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.938 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.118. Data: 23 Dalian Aerbin games / 23 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 44% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 29%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Aerbin 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Shandong Luneng 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shandong Luneng (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Dalian Aerbin 50% | Shandong Luneng 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Aerbin 44% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Dalian Aerbin 1.47 / Shandong Luneng 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Aerbin attack 0.934 / def 1.097 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.938 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Dalian Aerbin xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Shandong Luneng xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Dalian Aerbin 1 - 3 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Aerbin a 44% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng?
Record (1 meetings): Dalian Aerbin 0W | Draws 0 | Shandong Luneng 1W.
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng in?
Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dalian Aerbin's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Shandong Luneng's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Shandong Luneng's attack versus Dalian Aerbin's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
44%
2.30
28%
3.59
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Dalian Aerbin xG
Total xG
2.62
1.15
Shandong Luneng xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Dalian Aerbin and 1.15 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dalian Aerbin come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 6D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shandong Luneng sit at 2.32 PPG from 31 outings (22W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Shandong Luneng is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shandong Luneng carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dalian Aerbin's home form reads 4W 3D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Shandong Luneng have taken 1.79 points per game from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shandong Luneng come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dalian Aerbin are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.03 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
Shandong Luneng
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Dalian Aerbin have gone 8W 6D 17L in their last 31 games (0.97 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 22W 6D 3L in their last 31 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dalian Aerbin at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Shandong Luneng's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dalian Aerbin at home: 1.07 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Dalian Aerbin or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dalian Aerbin have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jun 2022, when Shandong Luneng won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Aerbin's record when hosting Shandong Luneng specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dalian Aerbin
1
Draws
3
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Aerbin have won 0, Shandong Luneng have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Dalian Aerbin 0-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dalian Aerbin 43%, Shandong Luneng 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Dalian Aerbin) and 50% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Shandong Luneng in 36%; Dalian Aerbin have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Aerbin home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dalian Aerbin play Shandong Luneng?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Dalian Aerbin's recent matches and 57% of Shandong Luneng's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dalian Aerbin vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Dalian Aerbin's recent games and 50% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dalian Aerbin and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Dalian Aerbin have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shandong Luneng cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shandong Luneng beat Dalian Aerbin 1-3 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Aerbin 1.47 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.15 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Aerbin attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.94 / defence 1.12, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Aerbin 44% | Draw 28% | Shandong Luneng 29%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Aerbin 45%, Shandong Luneng 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (31 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (31 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.