Chongqing Lifan 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium to face Chongqing Lifan in Super League, Relegation Round - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 December 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chongqing Lifan have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chongqing Lifan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 2D 4L this season (9 games, 1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tianjin Teda away from home this season: 0W 4D 5L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Chongqing Lifan, 0.60 for Tianjin Teda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chongqing Lifan lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Chongqing Lifan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Lifan 56% and Tianjin Teda 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Lifan 56% | Tianjin Teda 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 1.42 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / defence 1.283 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.682 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Tianjin Teda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Chongqing Lifan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Chongqing Lifan games / 14 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 42% | Draw 31% | Tianjin Teda 28%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Tianjin Teda 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chongqing Lifan are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Lifan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Chongqing Lifan 33% | Tianjin Teda 44% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Dec 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 42% | Draw 31% | Tianjin Teda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Chongqing Lifan 1.42 / Tianjin Teda 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / def 1.283 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.682 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Chongqing Lifan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Chongqing Lifan xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Tianjin Teda xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 25 December 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda?
Chongqing Lifan 0 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Chongqing Lifan a 42% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chongqing Lifan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda?
Record (1 meetings): Chongqing Lifan 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 0W.
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda in?
Chongqing Lifan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chongqing Lifan's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (0.68x) against Chongqing Lifan's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chongqing Lifan Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.25
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Chongqing Lifan xG
Total xG
2.55
1.12
Tianjin Teda xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
7%
15.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Chongqing Lifan and 1.12 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 18 outings, Chongqing Lifan have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 3W 4D 11L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Chongqing Lifan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda's form line: 2W 5D 11L from 18 games, 0.61 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.72 PPG for Chongqing Lifan against 0.61 for Tianjin Teda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Chongqing Lifan have posted 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.72 PPG overall — Chongqing Lifan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 0W 4D 5L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chongqing Lifan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chongqing Lifan are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 0.83 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda in 67%.
Last 18 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chongqing Lifan
Blended
Tianjin Teda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 5D 11L in their last 18 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chongqing Lifan at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Chongqing Lifan's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chongqing Lifan at home: 1.22 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Chongqing Lifan
1
Draws
1
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda?
From 2 meetings on record, Chongqing Lifan have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 25 December 2021, when Chongqing Lifan 0-1 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chongqing Lifan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chongqing Lifan 33%, Tianjin Teda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Chongqing Lifan) and 33% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Chongqing Lifan keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chongqing Lifan have failed to score in 44% of games; Tianjin Teda in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chongqing Lifan home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chongqing Lifan play Tianjin Teda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chongqing Lifan's recent matches and 44% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chongqing Lifan vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Chongqing Lifan's recent games and 33% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chongqing Lifan and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Chongqing Lifan have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tianjin Teda defy the odds to beat Chongqing Lifan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Chongqing Lifan 0-1 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chongqing Lifan 1.42 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.12 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chongqing Lifan fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chongqing Lifan attack 1.00 / defence 1.28 against Tianjin Teda attack 0.68 / defence 1.23, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chongqing Lifan 42% | Draw 31% | Tianjin Teda 28%, with Chongqing Lifan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Tianjin Teda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chongqing Lifan 56%, Tianjin Teda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chongqing Lifan's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chongqing Lifan 0.72 PPG, Tianjin Teda 0.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Chongqing Lifan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.