Chongqing Lifan 0-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chongqing Lifan at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chongqing Lifan face Tianjin Teda.

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Analysis

Tianjin Teda make the trip to Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium to face Chongqing Lifan in Super League (Relegation Round - 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 December 2021 at 11:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Chongqing Lifan have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Chongqing Lifan have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 home games (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.

Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Tianjin Teda away from home: 0W 4D 5L from their last 9 away games — 0.44 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Chongqing Lifan, 0.60 for Tianjin Teda — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Dec 2021, ended Chongqing Lifan 1–1 Tianjin Teda — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Chongqing Lifan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 18 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 18 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chongqing Lifan 56% and Tianjin Teda 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chongqing Lifan 56% | Tianjin Teda 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chongqing Lifan 1.42 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chongqing Lifan attack 0.996 / defence 1.283 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.682 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chongqing Lifan's projected output up. Tianjin Teda's attack rating of 0.682 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Chongqing Lifan's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Tianjin Teda's projected output up. Data: built from Chongqing Lifan's last 14 games and Tianjin Teda's last 14.

Result probabilities: Chongqing Lifan 42% | Draw 31% | Tianjin Teda 28%. Fair-value odds: Chongqing Lifan 2.40 | Draw 3.25 | Tianjin Teda 3.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Chongqing Lifan are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chongqing Lifan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Chongqing Lifan 33% (last 9 home games) | Tianjin Teda 44% (last 9 away games), a notable divergence.

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