Chengdu Better City 7-0 Qingdao Youth Island – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Chengdu Better City welcome Qingdao Youth Island to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chengdu Better City at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.24 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.194 / defence 0.834 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.866 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.468. Data: 43 Chengdu Better City games / 13 Qingdao Youth Island games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 63% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 16%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Qingdao Youth Island 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 63% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.24 / Qingdao Youth Island 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.194 / def 0.834 | Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.866 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Qingdao Youth Island xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Chengdu Better City 7 - 0 Qingdao Youth Island.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 63% chance of winning, Qingdao Youth Island a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Chengdu Better City home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.19) and Qingdao Youth Island's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Youth Island's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.83
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.30
1.06
Qingdao Youth Island xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
2%
59.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.06 for Qingdao Youth Island, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Youth Island?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Qingdao Youth Island
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Qingdao Youth Island specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
4
Draws
0
Qingdao Youth Island
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island?
From 6 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Qingdao Youth Island have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Qingdao Youth Island away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Qingdao Youth Island.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Youth Island 7-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.24 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.06 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 4.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.19 / defence 0.83 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.87 / defence 1.20, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 63% | Draw 21% | Qingdao Youth Island 16%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.