Chengdu Better City 1-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 70% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Chengdu Better City welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Chengdu Better City are significantly better at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park than their overall form suggests.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Chengdu Better City: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Qingdao Jonoon, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Chengdu Better City and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 58% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.64 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.291 / defence 0.936 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.989 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.863 / away 1.213. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Chengdu Better City games / 31 Qingdao Jonoon games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Jonoon 14%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Qingdao Jonoon 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (70%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 60% | Qingdao Jonoon 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Jonoon 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 63% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.64 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.291 / def 0.936 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.989 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.863 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Qingdao Jonoon xG
63%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 70% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (6 meetings): Chengdu Better City 4W | Draws 1 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.29) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.1%), 3-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
70%
1.44
17%
6.02
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.76
1.12
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.44
70%
Home win
6.02
17%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
7%
14.00
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
1%
101.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.12 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 60 games, going 35W 14D 11L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.90 PPG from 60 outings (13W 15D 32L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 21W 5D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.50 points per game from 30 outings (3W 6D 21L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.05 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 35W 14D 11L in their last 60 games (1.98 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 15D 32L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.27 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 50%, Qingdao Jonoon 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Chengdu Better City) and 43% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 37% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 43% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.64 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.12 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.29 / defence 0.94 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 70% | Draw 17% | Qingdao Jonoon 14%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Qingdao Jonoon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.