Chengdu Better City 1-0 Nantong Zhiyun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun meet at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Super League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nantong Zhiyun (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Nantong Zhiyun have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Chengdu Better City. A 1.30 PPG lead over Nantong Zhiyun (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Nantong Zhiyun and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 2–0 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Chengdu Better City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Nantong Zhiyun 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 57% | Nantong Zhiyun 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.49 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.161 / defence 0.824 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.007 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.236. Data: 32 Chengdu Better City games / 32 Nantong Zhiyun games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 26%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Nantong Zhiyun 3.85. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 30% | Nantong Zhiyun 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.49 / Nantong Zhiyun 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.161 / def 0.824 | Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.007 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Nantong Zhiyun xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Chengdu Better City 1 - 0 Nantong Zhiyun.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 48% chance of winning, Nantong Zhiyun a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun?
Record (2 meetings): Chengdu Better City 2W | Draws 0 | Nantong Zhiyun 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.16) and Nantong Zhiyun's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantong Zhiyun's attack (1.01x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
48%
2.10
27%
3.77
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Nantong Zhiyun xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
6%
17.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.03 for Nantong Zhiyun, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 8D 7L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Nantong Zhiyun sit at 0.73 PPG from 30 outings (4W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantong Zhiyun have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (2W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Nantong Zhiyun are on 0.87 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Nantong Zhiyun have gone 4W 10D 16L in their last 30 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Nantong Zhiyun away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.00 PPG; Nantong Zhiyun away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Nantong Zhiyun been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Nantong Zhiyun in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Chengdu Better City
0
Draws
0
Nantong Zhiyun
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun?
From 4 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 4, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun last play each other?
They last met on 7 July 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 0-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 53%, Nantong Zhiyun 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Chengdu Better City) and 33% (Nantong Zhiyun).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Nantong Zhiyun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Nantong Zhiyun?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Chengdu Better City's games and 67% of Nantong Zhiyun's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Nantong Zhiyun usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 33% of Nantong Zhiyun's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Nantong Zhiyun tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Nantong Zhiyun in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Nantong Zhiyun 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.49 xG and Nantong Zhiyun 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nantong Zhiyun landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.16 / defence 0.82 against Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 48% | Draw 27% | Nantong Zhiyun 26%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 57%, Nantong Zhiyun 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.73. That form edge translated into the three points. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.