Chengdu Better City 2-0 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Chengdu Better City (78%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chengdu Better City face Meizhou Kejia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Meizhou Kejia travel to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to take on Chengdu Better City. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chengdu Better City stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Meizhou Kejia have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 3.00. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Meizhou Kejia away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Chengdu Better City have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Chengdu Better City have won 3, Meizhou Kejia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Chengdu Better City trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Meizhou Kejia trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 52% versus Meizhou Kejia 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 61% | Meizhou Kejia 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 3.17 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.295 / defence 0.839 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.940 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.849 / away 1.371. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 3.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Meizhou Kejia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Chengdu Better City games / 56 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 78% | Draw 12% | Meizhou Kejia 9%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.28 | Draw 8.33 | Meizhou Kejia 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (78%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 4.25. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.25 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (3.17 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 80% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 50% | Meizhou Kejia 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 78% | Draw 12% | Meizhou Kejia 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 63% | xG Chengdu Better City 3.17 / Meizhou Kejia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.295 / def 0.839 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.940 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.849 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.17
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Meizhou Kejia xG
63%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 0 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 78% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 9% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
Record (5 meetings): Chengdu Better City 3W | Draws 1 | Meizhou Kejia 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 3.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Meizhou Kejia's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.17. The same calculation in reverse, Meizhou Kejia's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.7%), 3-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
78%
1.28
12%
8.01
9%
10.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
3 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.17
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
4.25
1.08
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.28
78%
Home win
8.01
12%
Draw
10.68
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
4%
23.83
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 3.17 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.08 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 4.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Chengdu Better City have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 31W 12D 13L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 14W 15D 27L from 56 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Meizhou Kejia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Chengdu Better City are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Chengdu Better City have posted 2.19 PPG from 27 outings (18W 5D 4L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 4W 7D 16L from 27 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.23 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Meizhou Kejia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 31W 12D 13L in their last 56 games (1.88 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 14W 15D 27L in their last 56 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.19 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Meizhou Kejia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Meizhou Kejia in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chengdu Better City have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Chengdu Better City won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Meizhou Kejia specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
From 8 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 6, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Chengdu Better City 3-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 48%, Meizhou Kejia 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Chengdu Better City and 67% for Meizhou Kejia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Meizhou Kejia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Chengdu Better City's games and 63% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Meizhou Kejia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 67% of Meizhou Kejia's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Meizhou Kejia tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Meizhou Kejia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Meizhou Kejia 2-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 3.17 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.08 xG, a combined 4.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Meizhou Kejia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.29 / defence 0.84 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 / defence 1.32, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 78% | Draw 12% | Meizhou Kejia 9%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 78%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 61%, Meizhou Kejia 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.