Changchun Yatai 0-0 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Changchun Yatai take on Wuhan Zall.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall meet at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 May 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.78 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.816 / defence 0.981 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.813 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 0.824 / away 1.333. Data: 2 Changchun Yatai games / 2 Wuhan Zall games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 23% | Draw 39% | Wuhan Zall 38%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 4.35 | Draw 2.56 | Wuhan Zall 2.63. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 23% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Kunshan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 May 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 23% | Draw 39% | Wuhan Zall 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.78 / Wuhan Zall 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.816 / def 0.981 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.813 / def 1.162 | league avg home 0.824 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Wuhan Zall xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 4 May 2021 at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 0 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 23% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 38% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.81x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
23%
4.32
39%
2.60
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.84
1.06
Wuhan Zall xG
4.32
23%
Home win
2.60
39%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.50
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 16.8 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.06 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Wuhan Zall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Pre-Season
Wuhan Zall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wuhan Zall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2022, when Wuhan Zall 1-1 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall?
Changchun Yatai have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Changchun Yatai's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 3, as Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Zall drew 0-0 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.78 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.06 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wuhan Zall landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.81 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 23% | Draw 39% | Wuhan Zall 38%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.