Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shanghai Shenhua at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Changchun Yatai welcome Shanghai Shenhua to Changchun Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 April 2024 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Changchun Yatai — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Changchun Sports Center Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Changchun Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shanghai Shenhua stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shanghai Shenhua away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Shanghai Shenhua's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Changchun Yatai's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Changchun Yatai, 1 for Shanghai Shenhua and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Changchun Yatai trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Shanghai Shenhua trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 56% versus Shanghai Shenhua 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 52% | Shanghai Shenhua 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.83 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.923 / defence 0.997 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.218 / defence 0.713. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.255. Shanghai Shenhua's defence strength of 0.713 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shanghai Shenhua have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Changchun Yatai games / 33 Shanghai Shenhua games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 21% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 54%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | Shanghai Shenhua 1.85. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Changchun Yatai 80% | Shanghai Shenhua 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Changchun Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 5 Apr 2024, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 21% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.83 / Shanghai Shenhua 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.923 / def 0.997 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.218 / def 0.713 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Shanghai Shenhua (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Shanghai Shenhua xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua kicked off at 08:30 on Friday 5 April 2024 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua being played?
The match is being played at Changchun Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 21% chance of winning, Shanghai Shenhua a 54% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shanghai Shenhua the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Record (6 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 3 | Shanghai Shenhua 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Shanghai Shenhua (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Changchun Yatai's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Shanghai Shenhua's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. The same calculation in reverse, Shanghai Shenhua's attack versus Changchun Yatai's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shanghai Shenhua Win
21%
4.87
26%
3.86
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.36
1.52
Shanghai Shenhua xG
4.87
21%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
4%
22.35
23%
4.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 14.4 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.52 for Shanghai Shenhua, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 21W 20D 23L from 64 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Shanghai Shenhua, meanwhile, have gone 29W 18D 17L across 64 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Changchun Yatai on 1.30 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 11W 10D 11L from 32 games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shanghai Shenhua's away record stands at 13W 10D 9L across 32 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Shanghai Shenhua are on 1.19 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Shanghai Shenhua in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Shanghai Shenhua
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Shanghai Shenhua have gone 29W 18D 17L in their last 64 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Shanghai Shenhua away?
Shanghai Shenhua's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.34 PPG; Shanghai Shenhua away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Changchun Yatai or Shanghai Shenhua been keeping clean sheets recently?
Changchun Yatai have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Shanghai Shenhua in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shanghai Shenhua have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Changchun Yatai's record when hosting Shanghai Shenhua specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
3
Draws
5
Shanghai Shenhua
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Shanghai Shenhua have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-2 Shanghai Shenhua.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua?
Shanghai Shenhua have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Shanghai Shenhua are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 59%, Shanghai Shenhua 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Changchun Yatai) and 44% (Shanghai Shenhua).
On the defensive side: Shanghai Shenhua in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Shanghai Shenhua away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Shanghai Shenhua?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Changchun Yatai's games and 56% of Shanghai Shenhua's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Shanghai Shenhua usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 44% of Shanghai Shenhua's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Shanghai Shenhua tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Shanghai Shenhua in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shanghai Shenhua edge out Changchun Yatai 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shanghai Shenhua beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Changchun Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.83 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.52 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.92 / defence 1.00 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.22 / defence 0.71, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 21% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 54%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 52%, Shanghai Shenhua 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.30 PPG, Shanghai Shenhua 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shanghai Shenhua win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.