Beijing Guoan 2-2 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Shenzhen Ruby FC at Yuexiushan Stadium in Super League, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 December 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Beijing Guoan — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan at Yuexiushan Stadium this season: 6W 2D 0L from 8 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Beijing Guoan are significantly better at Yuexiushan Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Shenzhen Ruby FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shenzhen Ruby FC away from home this season: 4W 1D 3L from 8 away games — 1.62 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.12 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Beijing Guoan at 1.70 PPG versus Shenzhen Ruby FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Beijing Guoan register both teams scoring in 62% of relevant matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 53% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 53% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.59 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.100 / defence 1.086 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.035 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.286. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Beijing Guoan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Beijing Guoan games / 14 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 62% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Yuexiushan Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Dec 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.59 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.100 / def 1.086 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.035 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 10:00 on Wednesday 22 December 2021 at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 2 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Yuexiushan Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 39% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.10) and Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.58
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.03
1.45
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
9%
10.86
7%
14.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.45 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beijing Guoan come into this having played 17 games, going 8W 3D 6L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 1.65 PPG from 17 outings (8W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Shenzhen Ruby FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Beijing Guoan on 1.59 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Beijing Guoan's home form reads 6W 2D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Beijing Guoan are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 1.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shenzhen Ruby FC in 65%.
Defensively: Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Blended
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 8W 3D 6L in their last 17 games (1.59 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 8W 4D 5L in their last 17 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 2.50 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jul 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Beijing Guoan
1
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 4, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 November 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beijing Guoan tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Beijing Guoan at 62%, Shenzhen Ruby FC at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Beijing Guoan and 75% for Shenzhen Ruby FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Beijing Guoan's games and 75% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Beijing Guoan's matches and 75% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan and Shenzhen Ruby FC finished level at 2-2 at Yuexiushan Stadium, Championship Round - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.59 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.45 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.10 / defence 1.09 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.25, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 39% | Draw 28% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 33%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 53%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Beijing Guoan 1.59 PPG, Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.