Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beijing Guoan at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shandong Luneng make the trip to Workers' Stadium to face Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Beijing Guoan (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Workers' Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shandong Luneng have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shandong Luneng's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Beijing Guoan have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Shandong Luneng in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Beijing Guoan, 2 for Shandong Luneng and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Shandong Luneng half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beijing Guoan 59% versus Shandong Luneng 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beijing Guoan 61% | Shandong Luneng 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 1.85 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 1.463 / defence 0.962 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.939 / defence 0.780. League average goals — home 1.625 / away 1.385. Beijing Guoan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.463 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Shandong Luneng's defence strength of 0.780 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Beijing Guoan games / 46 Shandong Luneng games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 25%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Shandong Luneng 4.00. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Beijing Guoan 60% | Shandong Luneng 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Workers' Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Beijing Guoan 1.85 / Shandong Luneng 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 1.463 / def 0.962 | Shandong Luneng attack 0.939 / def 0.780 | league avg home 1.625 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Shandong Luneng xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Workers' Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 0 Shandong Luneng.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng being played?
The match is being played at Workers' Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 51% chance of winning, Shandong Luneng a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
Record (5 meetings): Beijing Guoan 0W | Draws 3 | Shandong Luneng 2W.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in?
Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Shandong Luneng (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (1.46) and Shandong Luneng's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shandong Luneng's attack (0.94x) against Beijing Guoan's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
51%
1.95
23%
4.27
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
3.10
1.25
Shandong Luneng xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
16%
6.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
4%
25.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.25 for Shandong Luneng, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Beijing Guoan's recent record stands at 31W 16D 17L from 64 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Shandong Luneng, meanwhile, have gone 41W 13D 10L across 64 games — 2.12 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shandong Luneng by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Beijing Guoan have managed 16W 8D 8L from 32 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shandong Luneng's away record stands at 14W 10D 8L across 32 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shandong Luneng's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Beijing Guoan are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Shandong Luneng are on 2.28 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Shandong Luneng in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
Shandong Luneng
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng in coming into this match?
Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 games (1.70 PPG), while Shandong Luneng have gone 41W 13D 10L in their last 64 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beijing Guoan at home or Shandong Luneng away?
Beijing Guoan's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beijing Guoan at home: 1.75 PPG; Shandong Luneng away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Beijing Guoan or Shandong Luneng been keeping clean sheets recently?
Beijing Guoan have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Shandong Luneng in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shandong Luneng won 6-0 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Beijing Guoan have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shandong Luneng — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
3
Draws
4
Shandong Luneng
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
From 10 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Shandong Luneng have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Shandong Luneng.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng?
Shandong Luneng have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Shandong Luneng are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beijing Guoan 56%, Shandong Luneng 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Beijing Guoan) and 53% (Shandong Luneng).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shandong Luneng in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Shandong Luneng away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beijing Guoan play Shandong Luneng?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Beijing Guoan's games and 59% of Shandong Luneng's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Beijing Guoan's recent games and 53% of Shandong Luneng's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beijing Guoan and Shandong Luneng tend to score early?
Beijing Guoan have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Shandong Luneng in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Shandong Luneng.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shandong Luneng 2-0 at Workers' Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 1.85 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.25 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Shandong Luneng landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 1.46 / defence 0.96 against Shandong Luneng attack 0.94 / defence 0.78, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 51% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 25%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beijing Guoan 61%, Shandong Luneng 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Shandong Luneng's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.70. Form was overturned, with Beijing Guoan winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.