Beijing Guoan 2-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Beijing Guoan host Dalian Aerbin at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 4 May 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beijing Guoan 0.88 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beijing Guoan attack 0.964 / defence 1.150 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.794 / away 1.284. Data: 2 Beijing Guoan games / 2 Dalian Aerbin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 22% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 41%. Fair-value odds: Beijing Guoan 4.55 | Draw 2.70 | Dalian Aerbin 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 May 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beijing Guoan 22% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Beijing Guoan 0.88 / Dalian Aerbin 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Beijing Guoan attack 0.964 / def 1.150 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.794 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Beijing Guoan xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dalian Aerbin xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 13:00 on Tuesday 4 May 2021 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Beijing Guoan 2 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium.
What competition is Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Beijing Guoan a 22% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 41% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Beijing Guoan's attack rating (0.96) and Dalian Aerbin's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Beijing Guoan's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
22%
4.52
37%
2.72
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Beijing Guoan xG
Total xG
2.14
1.25
Dalian Aerbin xG
4.52
22%
Home win
2.72
37%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
6%
15.86
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 14.8 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.25 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Beijing Guoan vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beijing Guoan
Pre-Season
Dalian Aerbin
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beijing Guoan's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Beijing Guoan
2
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Beijing Guoan have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Beijing Guoan 2-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Beijing Guoan and Dalian Aerbin?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beijing Guoan home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Dalian Aerbin 2-0 at Jiangyin Sports Park Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beijing Guoan 0.88 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.25 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beijing Guoan attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Beijing Guoan 22% | Draw 37% | Dalian Aerbin 41%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Beijing Guoan win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.