Universidad de Chile 1-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Universidad de Chile vs Everton de Vina encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Everton de Vina make the trip to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to face Universidad de Chile in Primera División, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Monday 6 November 2023 at 22:00 UTC.

Form

Universidad de Chile (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primera División fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Universidad de Chile, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Universidad de Chile at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Universidad de Chile are significantly better at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK than their overall form suggests.

Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Everton de Vina are 0.80 PPG clear of Universidad de Chile in recent Primera División fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Universidad de Chile lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Universidad de Chile winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Universidad de Chile goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Universidad de Chile 60% versus Everton de Vina 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 53% | Everton de Vina 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.12 xG and Everton de Vina 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.937 / defence 0.994 | Everton de Vina attack 1.150 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.275. Data: 55 Universidad de Chile games / 55 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 29% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 45%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 2.22. Everton de Vina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Everton de Vina as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Universidad de Chile 50% | Everton de Vina 50%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights