Universidad de Chile 1-1 Coquimbo Unido – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Universidad de Chile at 43%, yet in-form Coquimbo Unido provide a compelling counter-argument — this Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Coquimbo Unido travel to Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos to take on Universidad de Chile in Primera División (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Universidad de Chile have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Universidad de Chile's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Coquimbo Unido — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Coquimbo Unido have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Coquimbo Unido's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Universidad de Chile's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Universidad de Chile's games and 80% of Coquimbo Unido's (from Universidad de Chile's last 10 home games and Coquimbo Unido's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Coquimbo Unido have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Universidad de Chile.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Universidad de Chile 1–2 Coquimbo Unido — a Coquimbo Unido win.
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Universidad de Chile in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Coquimbo Unido in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Universidad de Chile 63% and Coquimbo Unido 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Universidad de Chile 57% | Coquimbo Unido 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Universidad de Chile 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Universidad de Chile attack 0.983 / defence 0.916 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.898 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.388 / away 1.224. Data: built from Universidad de Chile's last 37 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 37.
Result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 29%. Fair-value odds: Universidad de Chile 2.31 | Draw 3.59 | Coquimbo Unido 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Universidad de Chile as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Coquimbo Unido (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Universidad de Chile offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Universidad de Chile 60% (last 10 home games) | Coquimbo Unido 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido | Competition: Primera División, matchday 8 | Venue: Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Universidad de Chile 1.30 / Coquimbo Unido 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Universidad de Chile attack 0.983 / def 0.916 | Coquimbo Unido attack 0.898 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.388 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Universidad de Chile (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Universidad de Chile xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Coquimbo Unido xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido FAQs
What time does Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido kick off?
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What was the final score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Universidad de Chile 1 - 1 Coquimbo Unido.
Where is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos.
What competition is Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido part of?
Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido is a Primera División fixture (matchday 8) (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our statistical model gives Universidad de Chile a 43% chance of winning, Coquimbo Unido a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Universidad de Chile the favourite.
Will both teams score in Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Universidad de Chile's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Coquimbo Unido's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Coquimbo Unido's attack versus Universidad de Chile's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Universidad de Chile's last 37 games and Coquimbo Unido's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Universidad de Chile Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.59
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Universidad de Chile xG
Total xG
2.31
1.01
Coquimbo Unido xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Universidad de Chile and 1.01 for Coquimbo Unido, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Universidad de Chile come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 13D 28L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Coquimbo Unido sit at 1.28 PPG from 60 outings (22W 11D 27L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Universidad de Chile on 1.17 PPG, Coquimbo Unido on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Universidad de Chile's home form reads 10W 9D 11L across their last 30 home games, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Coquimbo Unido have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 30 away games (8W 6D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Universidad de Chile are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Coquimbo Unido are on 1.28 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Universidad de Chile have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Coquimbo Unido in 63%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
Universidad de Chile (Home) vs Coquimbo Unido (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Universidad de Chile
Current Season
Coquimbo Unido
Current Season
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido Form FAQs
What form are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido in coming into this match?
Universidad de Chile have gone 19W 13D 28L in their last 60 games (1.17 PPG), while Coquimbo Unido have gone 22W 11D 27L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Universidad de Chile at home or Coquimbo Unido away?
Universidad de Chile's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Universidad de Chile at home: 1.30 PPG; Coquimbo Unido away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Primera División. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Universidad de Chile have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Universidad de Chile's record when hosting Coquimbo Unido specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Universidad de Chile
3
Draws
4
Coquimbo Unido
Recent Meetings
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Universidad de Chile have won 3, Coquimbo Unido have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Universidad de Chile 4-2 Coquimbo Unido.
Who has won more matches between Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido?
Coquimbo Unido have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Universidad de Chile are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Coquimbo Unido are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Universidad de Chile 57%, Coquimbo Unido 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Universidad de Chile) and 53% (Coquimbo Unido).
On the defensive side: Universidad de Chile have failed to score in 27% of games; Coquimbo Unido in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Universidad de Chile home games / Coquimbo Unido away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Universidad de Chile vs Coquimbo Unido Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Universidad de Chile's games and 60% of Coquimbo Unido's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Universidad de Chile's recent games and 53% of Coquimbo Unido's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Universidad de Chile's recent matches and 67% of Coquimbo Unido's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Regular Season - 8, as Universidad de Chile and Coquimbo Unido drew 1-1 in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Universidad de Chile 1.30 xG and Coquimbo Unido 1.01 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Universidad de Chile attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Coquimbo Unido attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Universidad de Chile 43% | Draw 28% | Coquimbo Unido 29%, with Universidad de Chile to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Universidad de Chile 57%, Coquimbo Unido 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Universidad de Chile's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Coquimbo Unido's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Universidad de Chile 1.17 PPG, Coquimbo Unido 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.