Union La Calera 1-3 Deportes Iquique – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union La Calera at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Deportes Iquique travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024, 23:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Union La Calera have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.77 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 1.061 / defence 1.072 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.091 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.284. Deportes Iquique bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Union La Calera's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Union La Calera games / 2 Deportes Iquique games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 33%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 2.27 | Draw 4.35 | Deportes Iquique 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Union La Calera as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union La Calera offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 44% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Union La Calera 1.77 / Deportes Iquique 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 1.061 / def 1.072 | Deportes Iquique attack 1.091 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Union La Calera (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Deportes Iquique xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique kick off?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Union La Calera 1 - 3 Deportes Iquique.
Where is Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique part of?
Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 44% chance of winning, Deportes Iquique a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Union La Calera the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Union La Calera home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Union La Calera's attack at 1.06x the league average against Deportes Iquique's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Deportes Iquique's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union La Calera Win
44%
2.26
23%
4.37
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
3.28
1.50
Deportes Iquique xG
2.26
44%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.50 for Deportes Iquique, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Deportes Iquique?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Pre-Season
Deportes Iquique
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 7 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Union La Calera's record when hosting Deportes Iquique specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Union La Calera
1
Draws
2
Deportes Iquique
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique?
From 4 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 1, Deportes Iquique have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2025, when Union La Calera 1-2 Deportes Iquique.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Deportes Iquique?
Deportes Iquique have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Deportes Iquique away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Deportes Iquique cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deportes Iquique beat Union La Calera 1-3 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.77 xG and Deportes Iquique 1.50 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Deportes Iquique outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Deportes Iquique attack 1.09 / defence 1.22, drawn from 31/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 44% | Draw 23% | Deportes Iquique 33%, with Union La Calera to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Deportes Iquique win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.