Union La Calera 0-2 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cobresal at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union La Calera vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primera División encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Cobresal travel to Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar to take on Union La Calera. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union La Calera stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Union La Calera's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Cobresal — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Cobresal have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Union La Calera) versus 0.80 (Cobresal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Union La Calera in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cobresal in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union La Calera 56% versus Cobresal 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union La Calera 50% | Cobresal 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union La Calera 1.15 xG and Cobresal 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union La Calera attack 0.964 / defence 1.359 | Cobresal attack 0.927 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.210. Data: 34 Union La Calera games / 34 Cobresal games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union La Calera 26% | Draw 30% | Cobresal 43%. Fair-value odds: Union La Calera 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Cobresal 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cobresal are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cobresal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union La Calera 50% | Cobresal 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union La Calera vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union La Calera 26% | Draw 30% | Cobresal 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Union La Calera 1.15 / Cobresal 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Union La Calera attack 0.964 / def 1.359 | Cobresal attack 0.927 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Cobresal (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Union La Calera xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Cobresal xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union La Calera vs Cobresal kick off?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal kicked off at 21:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What was the final score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Union La Calera 0 - 2 Cobresal.
Where is Union La Calera vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar.
What competition is Union La Calera vs Cobresal part of?
Union La Calera vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union La Calera a 26% chance of winning, Cobresal a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cobresal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union La Calera and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Union La Calera vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in?
Union La Calera (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Cobresal (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union La Calera's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Cobresal's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Cobresal's attack versus Union La Calera's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (34/34 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cobresal Win
26%
3.81
30%
3.29
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Union La Calera xG
Total xG
2.67
1.52
Cobresal xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
17.50
14%
7.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Union La Calera and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Union La Calera and 1.52 for Cobresal, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Union La Calera vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union La Calera come into this having played 32 games, going 15W 6D 11L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.25 PPG from 32 outings (11W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union La Calera on 1.59 PPG, Cobresal on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union La Calera's home form reads 7W 2D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 0.94 points per game from 16 outings (4W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union La Calera come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union La Calera are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.25 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union La Calera
Current Season
Cobresal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union La Calera and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union La Calera have gone 15W 6D 11L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 11W 7D 14L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union La Calera at home or Cobresal away?
Union La Calera's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union La Calera at home: 1.44 PPG; Cobresal away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Union La Calera or Cobresal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union La Calera have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cobresal in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Union La Calera and Cobresal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2026, when Cobresal won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Union La Calera's record when hosting Cobresal specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union La Calera
1
Draws
6
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Union La Calera have won 3, Cobresal have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union La Calera and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Cobresal 4-0 Union La Calera.
Who has won more matches between Union La Calera and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union La Calera are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cobresal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union La Calera 50%, Cobresal 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Union La Calera) and 56% (Cobresal).
On the defensive side: Union La Calera keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cobresal in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union La Calera home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union La Calera play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Union La Calera's recent matches and 56% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union La Calera vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Union La Calera's recent games and 56% of Cobresal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union La Calera and Cobresal tend to score early?
Union La Calera have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cobresal cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Union La Calera.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cobresal beat Union La Calera 0-2 at Estadio Municipal Nicolás Chahuán Nazar, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union La Calera 1.15 xG and Cobresal 1.52 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Union La Calera fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union La Calera attack 0.96 / defence 1.36 against Cobresal attack 0.93 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/34 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union La Calera 26% | Draw 30% | Cobresal 43%, with Cobresal to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union La Calera 50%, Cobresal 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union La Calera's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Cobresal's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union La Calera 1.59 PPG, Cobresal 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cobresal win broke the near-deadlock. Union La Calera (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Cobresal (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.