Union Espanola 1-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton de Vina at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK plays host to Union Espanola versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 4 February 2023 at 23:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Espanola have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Everton de Vina are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Everton de Vina in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Espanola lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 63% versus Everton de Vina 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 56% | Everton de Vina 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.28 xG and Everton de Vina 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 0.768 / defence 1.059 | Everton de Vina attack 1.134 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.191. Union Espanola's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Union Espanola games / 32 Everton de Vina games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 34% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 41%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Everton de Vina 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton de Vina are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton de Vina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 70% | Everton de Vina 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 34% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Union Espanola 1.28 / Everton de Vina 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 0.768 / def 1.059 | Everton de Vina attack 1.134 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Everton de Vina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Everton de Vina xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 23:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Union Espanola 1 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 34% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Everton de Vina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Union Espanola and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
Record (4 meetings): Union Espanola 1W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 2W.
What form are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Everton de Vina (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (0.77) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (1.13x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton de Vina Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.90
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.71
1.43
Everton de Vina xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.43 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 25W 10D 27L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Everton de Vina's form line: 19W 24D 19L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.31 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (13W 8D 10L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 8W 12D 11L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Espanola are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.11 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Current Season
Everton de Vina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 25W 10D 27L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 19W 24D 19L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.52 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Union Espanola or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Espanola have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 0-3 on 19 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
3
Draws
5
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 74%, Everton de Vina 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Union Espanola) and 29% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Union Espanola's games and 52% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Union Espanola's recent games and 29% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Espanola and Everton de Vina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola and Everton de Vina finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 3, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.28 xG and Everton de Vina 1.43 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 0.77 / defence 1.06 against Everton de Vina attack 1.13 / defence 1.03, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 34% | Draw 26% | Everton de Vina 41%, with Everton de Vina to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 56%, Everton de Vina 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.37 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.