Union Espanola 3-2 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Espanola at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK plays host to Union Espanola versus Everton de Vina in Primera División, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Espanola have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton de Vina's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton de Vina's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Union Espanola's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Union Espanola lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 0–2 with Everton de Vina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Union Espanola goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 69% versus Everton de Vina 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 65% | Everton de Vina 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 1.50 xG and Everton de Vina 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.305 / defence 1.239 | Everton de Vina attack 0.657 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.277. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 26 Union Espanola games / 26 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 47% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 25%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Everton de Vina 4.00. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Espanola are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Espanola if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Union Espanola 90% | Everton de Vina 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 47% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Union Espanola 1.50 / Everton de Vina 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.305 / def 1.239 | Everton de Vina attack 0.657 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Everton de Vina xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina kick off?
Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Union Espanola 3 - 2 Everton de Vina.
Where is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina part of?
Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 47% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Union Espanola and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
Record (1 meetings): Union Espanola 0W | Draws 0 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Everton de Vina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.30) and Everton de Vina's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Everton de Vina's attack (0.66x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.63
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.54
1.04
Everton de Vina xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.04 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Union Espanola have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 13W 3D 10L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina's form line: 10W 8D 8L from 26 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.46 for Everton de Vina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Espanola have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L).
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 4W 4D 5L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Espanola are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 0.88 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Everton de Vina in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 13W 3D 10L in their last 26 games (1.62 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 10W 8D 8L in their last 26 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Everton de Vina away?
Union Espanola's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 2.00 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Union Espanola or Everton de Vina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Espanola have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Everton de Vina in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Everton de Vina won 0-3 on 19 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Everton de Vina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
3
Draws
5
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 2, Everton de Vina have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Everton de Vina 0-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Everton de Vina?
Everton de Vina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Everton de Vina see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 85%, Everton de Vina 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Union Espanola) and 15% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: Everton de Vina in 31%; Everton de Vina in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 85% of Union Espanola's games and 38% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Espanola vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Union Espanola's recent games and 15% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Espanola and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Espanola edge out Everton de Vina 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Everton de Vina 3-2 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 29, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 1.50 xG and Everton de Vina 1.04 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Union Espanola beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton de Vina outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.30 / defence 1.24 against Everton de Vina attack 0.66 / defence 1.10, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 47% | Draw 28% | Everton de Vina 25%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 65%, Everton de Vina 19%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.62 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock. Union Espanola (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.