Union Espanola 2-1 Cobresal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Espanola at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Espanola vs Cobresal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK plays host to Union Espanola versus Cobresal in Primera División, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 27 July 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Union Espanola's overall Primera División record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Cobresal have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primera División outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cobresal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cobresal's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Union Espanola, 3 for Cobresal and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Union Espanola half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Cobresal half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Espanola 48% versus Cobresal 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Espanola 52% | Cobresal 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 2.13 xG and Cobresal 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.289 / defence 1.186 | Cobresal attack 0.988 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.364. Union Espanola carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Union Espanola games / 46 Cobresal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 50% | Draw 21% | Cobresal 29%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | Cobresal 3.45. Union Espanola hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union Espanola at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union Espanola 50% | Cobresal 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs Cobresal | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jul 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 50% | Draw 21% | Cobresal 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 70% | xG Union Espanola 2.13 / Cobresal 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.289 / def 1.186 | Cobresal attack 0.988 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Union Espanola (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Cobresal xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs Cobresal kick off?
Union Espanola vs Cobresal kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 27 July 2024 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Union Espanola 2 - 1 Cobresal.
Where is Union Espanola vs Cobresal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs Cobresal part of?
Union Espanola vs Cobresal is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 50% chance of winning, Cobresal a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Union Espanola the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Union Espanola and Cobresal will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs Cobresal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Cobresal?
Record (7 meetings): Union Espanola 1W | Draws 3 | Cobresal 3W.
What form are Union Espanola and Cobresal in?
Union Espanola (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Cobresal (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Union Espanola's attack rating (1.29) and Cobresal's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cobresal's attack (0.99x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Espanola Win
50%
2.00
21%
4.80
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
3.73
1.60
Cobresal xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
20%
4.95
12%
8.41
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
3%
28.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and Cobresal expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.60 for Cobresal, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs Cobresal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Union Espanola come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 12D 17L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cobresal sit at 1.50 PPG from 46 outings (18W 15D 13L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Cobresal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Union Espanola against 1.50 for Cobresal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Union Espanola's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Union Espanola are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cobresal have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (5W 8D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cobresal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Espanola come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Union Espanola are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Cobresal are on 1.74 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cobresal in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Blended
Cobresal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Espanola and Cobresal in coming into this match?
Union Espanola have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Cobresal have gone 18W 15D 13L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Espanola at home or Cobresal away?
Union Espanola's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Espanola at home: 1.95 PPG; Cobresal away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cobresal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Cobresal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Union Espanola
3
Draws
5
Cobresal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and Cobresal?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 2, Cobresal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and Cobresal last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Cobresal 1-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and Cobresal?
Cobresal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Cobresal see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Espanola 46%, Cobresal 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Union Espanola and 64% for Cobresal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Espanola keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cobresal in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / Cobresal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Espanola play Cobresal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Union Espanola's recent matches and 59% of Cobresal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Espanola vs Cobresal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Union Espanola's matches and 64% of Cobresal's.
Do Union Espanola and Cobresal tend to score early?
Union Espanola have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cobresal in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Espanola edge out Cobresal 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola beat Cobresal 2-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 17, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 2.13 xG and Cobresal 1.60 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.29 / defence 1.19 against Cobresal attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 50% | Draw 21% | Cobresal 29%, with Union Espanola to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Espanola 52%, Cobresal 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Espanola's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cobresal's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Espanola 1.37 PPG, Cobresal 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Espanola win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.