Union Espanola 1-1 A. Italiano – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Union Espanola take on A. Italiano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
A. Italiano make the trip to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK to face Union Espanola in Primera División, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 May 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Espanola 0.94 xG and A. Italiano 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Espanola attack 1.026 / defence 1.286 | A. Italiano attack 0.776 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 0.880 / away 1.081. Data: 5 Union Espanola games / 5 A. Italiano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Espanola 27% | Draw 39% | A. Italiano 34%. Fair-value odds: Union Espanola 3.70 | Draw 2.56 | A. Italiano 2.94. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Espanola vs A. Italiano | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Espanola 27% | Draw 39% | A. Italiano 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Union Espanola 0.94 / A. Italiano 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Union Espanola attack 1.026 / def 1.286 | A. Italiano attack 0.776 / def 1.044 | league avg home 0.880 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Union Espanola xG
Expected Goals
1.08
A. Italiano xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Espanola vs A. Italiano kick off?
Union Espanola vs A. Italiano kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 1 May 2021 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in Union Espanola vs A. Italiano?
Union Espanola 1 - 1 A. Italiano.
Where is Union Espanola vs A. Italiano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is Union Espanola vs A. Italiano part of?
Union Espanola vs A. Italiano is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win Union Espanola vs A. Italiano?
Our statistical model gives Union Espanola a 27% chance of winning, A. Italiano a 34% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Union Espanola vs A. Italiano?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Union Espanola and A. Italiano will score (BTTS).
Will Union Espanola vs A. Italiano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and A. Italiano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Espanola and A. Italiano in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Espanola's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against A. Italiano's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. Flip it around — A. Italiano's attack (0.78x) against Union Espanola's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.68
39%
2.59
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Union Espanola xG
Total xG
2.02
1.08
A. Italiano xG
3.68
27%
Home win
2.59
39%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
9%
10.84
13%
7.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 14.3 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Espanola vs A. Italiano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Union Espanola and A. Italiano expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Union Espanola and 1.08 for A. Italiano, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Espanola vs A. Italiano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Espanola
Pre-Season
A. Italiano
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: A. Italiano have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Espanola won 3-0 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Espanola have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against A. Italiano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Union Espanola
3
Draws
4
A. Italiano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Espanola and A. Italiano?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Espanola have won 3, A. Italiano have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Espanola and A. Italiano last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Union Espanola 3-4 A. Italiano.
Who has won more matches between Union Espanola and A. Italiano?
A. Italiano have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Espanola home games / A. Italiano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Union Espanola and A. Italiano share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Espanola and A. Italiano finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 6, in the Primera División. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Espanola 0.94 xG and A. Italiano 1.08 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Espanola attack 1.03 / defence 1.29 against A. Italiano attack 0.78 / defence 1.04, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Espanola 27% | Draw 39% | A. Italiano 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.