U. Catolica 2-1 Union Espanola – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Union Espanola fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
U. Catolica host Union Espanola at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Primera División, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 7 October 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, U. Catolica stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primera División matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
U. Catolica's home record at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primera División appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — U. Catolica are significantly better at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo than their overall form suggests.
Across all Primera División games this season, Union Espanola have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Espanola, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Espanola away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — U. Catolica at 1.90 PPG versus Union Espanola's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for U. Catolica, 1 for Union Espanola and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2021, ended 2–3 with Union Espanola winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
U. Catolica in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games).
Union Espanola in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 50% versus Union Espanola 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 68% | Union Espanola 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 2.13 xG and Union Espanola 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.546 / defence 0.975 | Union Espanola attack 0.851 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.090 / away 1.242. U. Catolica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.546 — their λ of 2.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Union Espanola bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing U. Catolica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 U. Catolica games / 23 Union Espanola games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 61% | Draw 22% | Union Espanola 16%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Union Espanola 6.25. The model has a clear lean to U. Catolica (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is U. Catolica at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: U. Catolica 50% | Union Espanola 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Union Espanola | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo • Kick-off: Thursday 7 Oct 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 61% | Draw 22% | Union Espanola 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG U. Catolica 2.13 / Union Espanola 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.546 / def 0.975 | Union Espanola attack 0.851 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.090 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Union Espanola xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Union Espanola kick off?
U. Catolica vs Union Espanola kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 7 October 2021 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
U. Catolica 2 - 1 Union Espanola.
Where is U. Catolica vs Union Espanola being played?
The match is being played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Union Espanola part of?
U. Catolica vs Union Espanola is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 61% chance of winning, Union Espanola a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both U. Catolica and Union Espanola will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Union Espanola have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union Espanola?
Record (1 meetings): U. Catolica 0W | Draws 0 | Union Espanola 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Union Espanola in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Union Espanola (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
U. Catolica's attacking strength (1.55x league average) is weighed against Union Espanola's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. The same calculation in reverse, Union Espanola's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.47
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
3.16
1.03
Union Espanola xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
12%
8.39
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
51.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Union Espanola expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.03 for Union Espanola, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Union Espanola?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica come into this having played 22 games, going 13W 2D 7L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Espanola sit at 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (10W 3D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Union Espanola is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.86 PPG, Union Espanola on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
U. Catolica's home form reads 9W 2D 0L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — U. Catolica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Union Espanola have taken 1.18 points per game from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Union Espanola are on 1.55 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Espanola in 64%.
Defensively: U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Union Espanola
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Union Espanola in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 13W 2D 7L in their last 22 games (1.86 PPG), while Union Espanola have gone 10W 3D 9L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Union Espanola away?
U. Catolica's home record (2.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 2.64 PPG; Union Espanola away: 1.18 PPG.
Have U. Catolica or Union Espanola been keeping clean sheets recently?
U. Catolica have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Union Espanola in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
U. Catolica go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Union Espanola specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
U. Catolica
2
Draws
2
Union Espanola
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Union Espanola?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 6, Union Espanola have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Union Espanola last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when U. Catolica 2-0 Union Espanola.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Union Espanola?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Union Espanola are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 54%, Union Espanola 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for U. Catolica and 54% for Union Espanola. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Union Espanola in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Union Espanola away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Union Espanola?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of U. Catolica's recent matches and 46% of Union Espanola's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is U. Catolica vs Union Espanola usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of U. Catolica's matches and 54% of Union Espanola's.
Do U. Catolica and Union Espanola tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Union Espanola in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as U. Catolica edge out Union Espanola 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
U. Catolica beat Union Espanola 2-1 at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo, Regular Season - 25, in the Primera División. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 2.13 xG and Union Espanola 1.03 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.55 / defence 0.97 against Union Espanola attack 0.85 / defence 1.26, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 61% | Draw 22% | Union Espanola 16%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 68%, Union Espanola 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Espanola's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.86 PPG, Union Espanola 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the U. Catolica win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.