U. Catolica 0-1 Everton de Vina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates U. Catolica at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primera División clash, Regular Season - 16 as U. Catolica welcome Everton de Vina to Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 July 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primera División games this season, U. Catolica have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for U. Catolica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, U. Catolica have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Everton de Vina — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Primera División fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton de Vina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Everton de Vina have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (U. Catolica) versus 1.70 (Everton de Vina). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for U. Catolica, 1 for Everton de Vina and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 3–0 with U. Catolica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
U. Catolica trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Everton de Vina trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — U. Catolica 53% versus Everton de Vina 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (U. Catolica 60% | Everton de Vina 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects U. Catolica 1.59 xG and Everton de Vina 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: U. Catolica attack 1.085 / defence 1.039 | Everton de Vina attack 1.087 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.241. Data: 45 U. Catolica games / 45 Everton de Vina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: U. Catolica 42% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 34%. Fair-value odds: U. Catolica 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Everton de Vina 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, U. Catolica are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on U. Catolica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: U. Catolica 70% | Everton de Vina 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina | Competition: Primera División, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: U. Catolica 42% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG U. Catolica 1.59 / Everton de Vina 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: U. Catolica attack 1.085 / def 1.039 | Everton de Vina attack 1.087 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: U. Catolica (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
U. Catolica xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Everton de Vina xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kick off?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What was the final score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica 0 - 1 Everton de Vina.
Where is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK.
What competition is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina part of?
U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primera División (Chile).
Who is favourite to win U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our statistical model gives U. Catolica a 42% chance of winning, Everton de Vina a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making U. Catolica the favourite.
Will both teams score in U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both U. Catolica and Everton de Vina will score (BTTS).
Will U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
Record (4 meetings): U. Catolica 2W | Draws 1 | Everton de Vina 1W.
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in?
U. Catolica (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Everton de Vina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates U. Catolica's attack at 1.08x the league average against Everton de Vina's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton de Vina's attack versus U. Catolica's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
U. Catolica Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.09
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
U. Catolica xG
Total xG
2.99
1.40
Everton de Vina xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
7%
14.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for U. Catolica and 1.40 for Everton de Vina, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
U. Catolica's recent record stands at 19W 11D 15L from 45 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for U. Catolica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton de Vina, meanwhile, have gone 15W 19D 11L across 45 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Everton de Vina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: U. Catolica on 1.51 PPG, Everton de Vina on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, U. Catolica have managed 9W 8D 5L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Everton de Vina's away record stands at 5W 10D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, U. Catolica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
U. Catolica are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Everton de Vina are on 1.40 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Primera División
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
U. Catolica
Blended
Everton de Vina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are U. Catolica and Everton de Vina in coming into this match?
U. Catolica have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Everton de Vina have gone 15W 19D 11L in their last 45 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — U. Catolica at home or Everton de Vina away?
U. Catolica's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — U. Catolica at home: 1.59 PPG; Everton de Vina away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primera División. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2025, when U. Catolica won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
U. Catolica's record when hosting Everton de Vina specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
U. Catolica
3
Draws
3
Everton de Vina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
From 10 meetings on record, U. Catolica have won 4, Everton de Vina have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did U. Catolica and Everton de Vina last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when U. Catolica 2-2 Everton de Vina.
Who has won more matches between U. Catolica and Everton de Vina?
U. Catolica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
U. Catolica see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Everton de Vina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — U. Catolica 46%, Everton de Vina 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (U. Catolica) and 41% (Everton de Vina).
On the defensive side: U. Catolica keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; U. Catolica have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = U. Catolica home games / Everton de Vina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when U. Catolica play Everton de Vina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of U. Catolica's games and 68% of Everton de Vina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is U. Catolica vs Everton de Vina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of U. Catolica's recent games and 41% of Everton de Vina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do U. Catolica and Everton de Vina tend to score early?
U. Catolica have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Everton de Vina in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton de Vina defy the odds to beat U. Catolica 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton de Vina beat U. Catolica 0-1 at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK, Regular Season - 16, in the Primera División. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting U. Catolica 1.59 xG and Everton de Vina 1.40 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. U. Catolica fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of U. Catolica attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Everton de Vina attack 1.09 / defence 1.19, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it U. Catolica 42% | Draw 24% | Everton de Vina 34%, with U. Catolica to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Everton de Vina win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (U. Catolica 60%, Everton de Vina 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
U. Catolica's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Everton de Vina's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — U. Catolica 1.51 PPG, Everton de Vina 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton de Vina win broke the near-deadlock. U. Catolica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton de Vina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.